亚洲外汇：2026 年汇率展望-Asia FX_ rates outlook 2026

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Focus: Asia FX and Rates Outlook for 2026 - Key Themes: Stable USD outlook, potential downside risks, and Asia rates expected to rise as the easing cycle ends Core Insights 1. USD Outlook: - Stable USD expected into Q1 2026, with a forecast of a ~2% decline by Q2 2026 and ~4% by end-2026 from current levels [1][5][44] - Risks include elevated foreign positioning in US assets and potential corrections in US equities [10][44] 2. Asia Rates: - Anticipation of a broad increase in rates into Q1 2026 as the easing cycle concludes, particularly in the front end [1][25] - Key macro indicators such as PMIs and Nomura's leading index of Asian exports are improving [25] 3. Top FX Trades: - Long EUR/INR with a target of 107.7 by end-March 2026, conviction level 5/5 [3][30] - Short SGD/JPY targeting 115.8 by end-March 2026, conviction level 4/5 [3][38] - Long NZD/USD targeting 0.59 by end-March 2026, conviction level 4/5 [3][34] - Short USD/TWD targeting 29.8 by end-May 2026, conviction level 3/5 [3][42] 4. Economic Growth Projections: - US growth forecasted at 3.0% q-o-q SAAR in Q1 2026, driven by private consumption and investment [7] - Other major economies (Euro area, Japan, China) projected to grow at lower rates of 1.2%, 1.1%, and 3.2% respectively [7] 5. Inflation and Monetary Policy: - Expectations of stable inflation in the US, with the Fed likely to maintain rates unchanged in December 2025 [8] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) expected to hike rates by 25bp in December 2025 [8] 6. Risks to USD and Global Markets: - Potential for larger downside moves in USD due to various factors including a slowing US labor market and concerns over Fed independence [10][44] - Elevated foreign positioning in US portfolio assets poses risks of an unwind [10][44] Additional Important Insights 1. India's Economic Context: - India's current account deficit projected to worsen due to high US tariffs, with a merchandise trade deficit of USD41.7 billion in October 2025 [31] - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expected to cut rates further, which may pressure the INR [31][30] 2. China's Economic Dynamics: - China's growth forecast to slow from 4.9% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026, but this may not lead to lower rates due to a flat swap curve [29] 3. Geopolitical Factors: - Potential for a US-China trade deal and a Russia-Ukraine peace deal could influence market dynamics positively [15][8] 4. Market Sentiment: - Caution among investors regarding US equities despite a strong rally in indices like Nasdaq and S&P [10] - Concerns over the sustainability of the AI investment boom and its impact on financial markets [38] 5. Long-term Investment Strategies: - Focus on selective positioning for the end of the Asia rates easing cycle, with expectations of higher long-end rates in certain markets [28][25] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the Asia FX and rates outlook, economic projections, and potential risks affecting the market.