全球大宗商品 2026 年展望：供应驱动的 “鳄鱼周期”—— 紧俏金属持续跑赢过剩能源；G9 旧品仍是第四年的买入标的-Global Commodities 2026 Outlook_ Supply-driven crocodile cycle—tight metals continue to beat glutted energy. G9 old remains a fourth-year buy

Key Takeaways from J.P. Morgan Global Commodities 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the commodities sector, particularly the dynamics between energy and metals markets, highlighting a supply-driven "crocodile cycle" where tight metals outperform oversupplied energy markets [1][27]. Core Insights - The Bloomberg Commodities Index (BCOM) has increased nearly 12% in 2025, with expectations for stability in 2026 as declines in energy prices are countered by gains in industrial and precious metals [7][10]. - Historical commodity price cycles have shown synchronized movements across markets, but a divergence occurred in 2024, with energy prices falling while metals prices surged due to supply dynamics [7][39]. - Commodities contributed to higher headline inflation in 2025, reversing their previous disinflationary role in 2023 and 2024, driven by rising prices in food and metals despite a 16% drop in oil prices [7][51]. Precious Metals Outlook - A bullish outlook on gold is maintained for the fourth consecutive year, with prices expected to reach $5,000/oz due to strong central bank and investor demand [9][16]. - Silver prices are projected to rise towards $58/oz, supported by ongoing demand despite potential cracks in industrial usage [16]. - Platinum prices are expected to average $1,670/oz in 2026, while palladium prices may face downward pressure due to weaker demand growth [16][17]. Industrial Metals Outlook - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are favored, with prices expected to rally towards $12,500/mt in 1H26 due to acute supply disruptions [9][18]. - The copper market is anticipated to tighten due to flat mine supply growth and resilient demand, particularly from power utilities and data centers [18][44]. - Aluminum prices are expected to rise towards $3,000/mt in 1H26 before facing downward pressure from increased supply growth in Indonesia later in the forecast [18][45]. Agricultural Commodities Outlook - The agricultural market is expected to experience increased volatility amid improving US-China trade relations, although significant purchases from China during the 2025/26 season are not anticipated [19]. - Price targets for various agricultural commodities have been revised higher, with ICE 2 Cotton identified as a top pick for 2026/27 [19]. Natural Gas and Oil Outlook - The outlook for US natural gas has shifted to bearish, with prices expected to average $3.74/MMBtu in 2026 due to strong production growth [9][20]. - A bearish outlook on oil is maintained, with Brent prices projected to average $58/bbl in 2026, following a decline from $80 in 2024 [9][24]. - Global oil supply is expected to outpace demand, leading to a projected surplus of 2.8 mbd in 2026, which will exert downward pressure on prices [24]. Technical and Derivatives Insights - The report includes technical analysis and trade recommendations for commodities, emphasizing the importance of a targeted investment approach to capitalize on outperforming sectors [9][47]. - Volatility in oil prices is expected to remain subdued, while precious metals are entering 2026 with elevated volatility levels [52][62]. Conclusion - The commodities market is characterized by a significant divergence between energy and metals, with supply constraints in metals providing better investment opportunities compared to oversupplied energy markets [27][47].