日本 2026 年展望：2026 年股市观点与优选标的 -Moriy a2026 年股市观点与优选标的-Japan Outlook 2026 _2026 Equity Market View and Top Picks_ Moriya_ 2026 Equity Market View and Top Picks

Summary of Japan Equity Market Outlook 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Japanese equity market and its outlook for 2026, highlighting significant structural changes and geopolitical factors impacting the market [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Economic Normalization: The Japanese economy is expected to continue its normalization process, overcoming previous shocks such as US tariffs, with an estimated annual upside of +8% for Japanese equities [2][3]. 2. Inflation and Corporate Reforms: Key drivers include an upswing in inflation, corporate reforms (involving shareholder returns, business restructuring, and growth investments), and investments focused on economic security [2][3]. 3. AI and Geopolitical Factors: Stock selection will be influenced by global AI expectations, with a widening performance gap among sectors due to operational resource allocation in response to inflation and geopolitical changes [3][35]. 4. Sector Preferences: Preferred sectors include banks and consumption-related sectors at the beginning of 2026, transitioning to AI-related sectors as the global economy accelerates [3][35]. 5. Top Stock Picks: Notable stock picks include: - Technology Sector: Tokyo Electron, Murata Manufacturing, Daikin - Real Estate and Retail: Mitsubishi Estate, FOOD & LIFE - Corporate Reforms: Toyota, Sumitomo Corporation, Panasonic, Kirin [3][4]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. Fiscal Policy Impact: The fiscal deficit is projected to widen from -0.8% of GDP in 2025 to -2.9% in 2026, which may boost GDP by approximately 0.7 percentage points [14][15]. 2. Wage Growth and Inflation: Wage growth is expected to persist, with base pay hikes projected to be slightly above 3%, contributing to a shift from deflation to sustained inflation [36][37]. 3. Corporate Governance Reforms: The Financial Services Agency (FSA) plans to revise the Corporate Governance Code, which may lead to improved balance sheet efficiency and resource reallocation among Japanese companies [37][38]. 4. Geopolitical Risks: The minority status of the new administration raises concerns about policy execution, with potential risks of a "Japan sell-off" if fiscal expansion is not managed effectively [15][39]. Economic Projections - GDP Growth: Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate from 0.9% in FY2025 to 1.2% in FY2026, with a nominal growth rate of about 3% over the next three years [11][12]. - Inflation Rates: Core CPI is projected to slow from 3.1% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026, but inflation expectations may sustain around 2% beyond 2027 [12][13]. Conclusion - The Japanese equity market is poised for growth driven by structural reforms, inflationary trends, and strategic investments in key sectors. However, geopolitical risks and fiscal policy execution remain critical factors to monitor as 2026 approaches [1][2][3][4].