中国消费品 - 酒类及饮料专家电话会：白酒批发价压力加大，茅台、汾酒寻求增长-China consumer staples_ Spirits & Beverage expert call_ more wholesale price pressure for spirits with MoutaiFen Wine pursuing growth

Summary of the Investor Call on China Consumer Staples: Spirits & Beverage Industry Overview - The call focused on the Spirits & Beverage industry, particularly in the Hunan region, discussing growth targets and pricing pressures for major brands including Moutai, Wuliangye, Laojiao, and Fen Wine [1][2]. Key Points 1. Wholesale Price Pressure - The wholesale price for premium spirits is under pressure, with Feitian's price expected to approach Rmb1,499 or lower during the non-peak season. This may decline further during the Chinese New Year (CNY) period, potentially stimulating demand and reducing channel inventory pressure [1]. - Non-standard Moutai faces significant inventory and profitability challenges, with inventory levels exceeding two months, contributing approximately 30% of volume and 50% of value share for Moutai Spirits in 2025 year-to-date [1]. 2. Prepayment Policies and Growth Targets - Moutai and Fen Wine are targeting a 5% growth for 2026, while Wuliangye and Fen Wine have set prepayment requirements of 50% and 40% respectively for the first quarter of 2026 [2]. - Effective prepayment prices are expected to decrease, particularly for Wuliangye, with prices projected to be Rmb940, Rmb870-880, and Rmb800 in sequential quarters of 2025 [2]. 3. Retail Sales Expectations - Retail sales expectations for spirits are weak heading into the 2026 CNY, with an anticipated overall decline of approximately 15% in spirits retail demand. Specific declines of 5-10% are expected for Feitian Moutai and Common Wuliangye [3]. - Local brands such as King's Luck and Gujing may perform relatively better compared to pan-national upper mid-end brands [3]. 4. Beverage Growth Targets - Nongfu Spring is targeting a 13% growth in 2026, expecting water volume to return to 2023 levels. Eastroc aims for over 25% growth in both Hunan and nationwide [8]. - Wahaha has not set specific contract targets for 2026, while Tingyi is still aiming for positive sales growth despite low single-digit growth or decline in noodle and beverage segments for the third quarter to November [8]. Additional Insights - The expert highlighted that channel inventory pressure is accumulating for Fen Wine due to prepayment requirements, with inventory levels at approximately three months and wholesale prices decreasing from Rmb360-380 to Rmb350 [2]. - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious outlook for the spirits market, with significant challenges in maintaining pricing power and managing inventory levels across major brands [1][3].