美国经济-12 月 FOMC 会议前瞻：进一步降息的门槛提高-US Economics Analyst_ December FOMC Preview_ Raising the Bar for Further Cuts

Summary of Key Points from the December FOMC Preview Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. economic outlook and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for December, which is expected to address interest rate adjustments. Core Insights and Arguments - Interest Rate Cut Expectations: The FOMC is anticipated to implement a third consecutive 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.5-3.75% [2][5] - Labor Market Concerns: Job growth is insufficient to match labor supply growth, with an estimated underlying trend monthly job growth of 40,000, below the breakeven rate of 70,000. The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, indicating a softening labor market [2][6][10] - Dovish vs. Hawkish Sentiment: While many investors expect a hawkish tone from the FOMC, there is uncertainty regarding future cuts, especially if the labor market continues to weaken [2][18][39] - Economic Projections: The median GDP growth forecast is expected to rise to 2% for both 2025 and 2026, while core PCE inflation is projected to decline to 3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026 [25][26] - Future Rate Cuts: The FOMC is likely to signal that the bar for further cuts has been raised, with expectations of one additional cut in 2026 to 3.375% and another in 2027 to 3.125% [28][31] Additional Important Insights - Inflation Trends: Core PCE inflation, net of tariff effects, is currently estimated at 2.3% and is expected to reach 2% by the first half of 2026 [13][14][17] - Impact of AI on Employment: Companies are increasingly utilizing AI to reduce labor costs, which may lead to restrained hiring or increased layoffs, further complicating the labor market outlook [35][36] - Economic Uncertainty: The report highlights significant uncertainty regarding whether improved GDP growth will stabilize the labor market, given the current negative job growth outside of healthcare [35][36] Conclusion - The upcoming FOMC meeting is poised to be contentious, with a mix of hawkish and dovish sentiments among participants. The labor market's performance and inflation trends will be critical in shaping future monetary policy decisions.