日本股票策略市场探索_2026 展望_牛市延续，日经指数冲击 60000 点高位-Japan Equity Strategy Market Explorer_ 2026 outlook_ 2026 outlook_ Bull market continues, 60,000 high for the Nikkei

Summary of Japanese Equity Strategy Market Explorer Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Japanese equity market, specifically the performance and outlook for the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indices. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Bullish Outlook for 2026 - Japanese equities are expected to continue rising in 2026, with forecasted annual highs of 4,000 for TOPIX and 60,000 for the Nikkei 225 [1][2][29] 2. Strong Corporate Earnings - Anticipated strong corporate earnings in an inflationary environment, with a positive surprise ratio consistently above 50% since 2023 [36][37] - Earnings growth is particularly expected in sectors dependent on domestic demand, despite potential negative impacts from yen appreciation [3][36] 3. Investment Themes and Sector Recommendations - Key investment themes for 2026 include government economic policy, corporate governance code amendments, and sustained inflation [4] - Overweight positions are recommended in energy, capital goods/services, and real estate sectors, while underweight positions are suggested for ICT, consumer staples, and communication services [4] 4. Market Characteristics in 2025 - The Japanese equity market has shown decoupling from forex rates, with significant polarization in sector performance [17][18] - Stock selection has been theme-focused, particularly on AI, data centers, and other high-growth sectors [25] 5. Performance Metrics - As of December 4, 2025, the year-to-date returns for Japanese equities were 27.9% for the Nikkei 225 and 22.0% for TOPIX, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit returns [9][12] 6. Foreign Investment Trends - There has been a notable increase in foreign investment in Japanese equities, which is less correlated with forex rates than in previous years [18][20] 7. Sector Performance Disparities - Significant disparities exist between sector performances, with steel & nonferrous metals leading gains at 57.8%, while sectors like pharmaceuticals and raw materials lagged behind [22][23] 8. Macroeconomic Forecasts - The macroeconomic outlook includes stable growth rates, potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ECB, and a modest hike by the Bank of Japan [29][30] Additional Important Content - Government Economic Stimulus - Continued government economic stimulus is expected to support household budgets and drive domestic demand [37][56] - Valuation Concerns - Despite high price-to-earnings ratios nearing historical upper limits, strong underlying fundamentals suggest further upside potential for Japanese equities [2][29] - Sector-Specific Recommendations - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Sumitomo Rubber Industries, Shin-Etsu Chemical, and Nintendo, among others, with respective buy ratings [5] This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the Japanese equity market, emphasizing the potential for continued growth and the importance of sector selection in investment strategies.