日本通胀追踪_2026-2027 展望-Japan Economic Comment_ Japan Inflation Tracker_ Outlook for 2026-2027

Global Research ab 5 December 2025 We assume USDJPY will reach 152 by end-2026 and 2027, staying within the 2024- 2025 range. Crude oil prices should remain near current levels, implying neither strong upward nor downward pressure on domestic energy prices. However, the government will abolish the provisional gasoline tax and introduce electricity and gas subsidies, leading to substantially lower energy prices. We estimate the former will lower 2026 core CPI by 25bp and the latter by 12bp (63bp in February– ...