日本通胀追踪_2026-2027 展望-Japan Economic Comment_ Japan Inflation Tracker_ Outlook for 2026-2027

Summary of Japan Economic Comment: Outlook for 2026-2027 Industry Overview - Industry: Japanese Economy - Focus: Inflation trends, particularly food and service inflation, and their impact on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Key Points Inflation Trends - Food Inflation: - Food inflation peaked in July 2023 and is expected to decelerate until mid-2026, with core-core CPI projected to decline from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.1% in 2026, largely due to food inflation contributing -0.8 percentage points to the total deceleration [1][2] - Rice inflation fell from a peak of 102% YoY in May to 40% in October 2023, with expectations of reaching 0% YoY by April 2024 [2] - Service Inflation: - Underlying service inflation is expected to stabilize around 2% YoY, with current headline service inflation at 1.6%, impacted by government policies such as free high school tuition [3] - The introduction of free tuition for private high schools and free elementary school lunches is anticipated to exert downward pressure on service CPI in FY2026, estimated to impact service CPI by 60 basis points [3] Wage Growth and Its Impact - Wage Outlook: - A slowdown in wage growth is expected during the 2026 Shunto negotiations, decreasing from 3.7% in FY2025 to 3.2% [4] - Core wages are projected to decline from 2.5% year-to-date in FY2025 to around 2.3%, leading to service inflation remaining slightly below 2% [4] Core CPI Projections - Core CPI: - Expected to slow to 1.7% YoY in CY2026, influenced by government policies such as the abolition of the provisional gasoline tax and the introduction of electricity and gas subsidies, which will lower energy prices [5] - Core CPI is projected to stabilize around 2% beyond 2026, with estimates of 1.9% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028 [5] Risks and Uncertainties - Food Disinflation Risks: - The pace of food disinflation remains uncertain, particularly due to recent JPY depreciation, which poses upside risks to food prices [2] - Government Policy Effects: - The impact of government interventions on CPI is significant, with estimates indicating a reduction of core CPI by 0.63 basis points due to subsidies [33][5] Economic Outlook - GDP Growth: - Real GDP growth is projected at 0.9% for 2025, 1.2% for 2026, and 1.0% for 2027, indicating a stable economic environment [46] - Inflation Expectations: - Inflation expectations are anticipated to remain stable at around 2% beyond 2026, supported by rising output gaps and wage growth [46] Additional Insights - Housing Rent: - Housing rent rose by 0.4% YoY in October 2023, marking the highest increase since 2005, which significantly impacts core CPI and service CPI [25] - Consumer Confidence: - Consumer confidence is rebounding, partly due to slowing food inflation, which may positively influence private consumption [67] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the Japan Economic Comment, focusing on inflation trends, wage growth, core CPI projections, and the overall economic outlook for Japan through 2026-2027.