美国经济-关税开始抑制实际支出-Tariffs start to cool real spending

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the US Economics sector, focusing on the impact of tariffs on real spending and inflation trends in North America [1] Core Insights and Arguments - Core PCE Inflation: Core PCE inflation rose by 0.20% month-over-month (m/m) in September, slightly below expectations of 0.22%. The annual pace was recorded at 2.83%, which is above the target of 2% [4][5] - Goods Prices: There has been a gradual passthrough of tariffs, with goods prices increasing, which has negatively impacted real goods spending. Real goods spending fell by 0.4% m/m in September, while services spending rose by 0.2% [4][21] - Real Personal Spending: Real personal spending was flat in September, with nominal spending increasing by 0.3%. The overall consumption for Q3 is expected to rise by 2.7% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) [21][22] - Income Trends: Real disposable personal income increased by 0.1%, while nominal personal income rose by 0.4%. Labor compensation also saw a rise of 0.4% [26] Additional Important Insights - Tariff Impact: The total tariff push to PCE prices has been estimated at about 30 basis points (bp) so far, with expectations of continued inflationary pressure from tariffs into Q4 and Q1 [7][27] - Consumer Behavior: Initial reports on Black Friday spending were better than anticipated, but these do not correlate well with overall spending data, indicating that prices likely influenced nominal sales [27] - Sector Performance: Within goods, real durable goods spending fell by 0.6% m/m, with significant declines in auto spending and furniture. Nondurable goods spending also decreased by 0.3% m/m [23][24] Conclusion - The overall economic outlook suggests a cooling in real spending due to higher prices driven by tariffs and slower income growth, with expectations of further deceleration in real consumption growth in Q4 [27]