生猪：如何看当下疫病情况

Summary of Livestock Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the livestock industry, specifically the pig farming sector, and discusses the current market conditions and future trends related to pig prices and supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Current Market Conditions - The pig market is experiencing fluctuations due to seasonal factors, with prices for fat pigs higher than standard pigs post-Chinese New Year, but a significant drop in prices observed from June to August 2025 due to supply mismatches [1][2]. - In September and October, slaughter data showed a month-on-month increase of 7% and 3% respectively, indicating potential unmonitored small pigs entering the market [1][3]. - The impact of local rainfall on piglet mortality rates has been noted, affecting the concentration of fat pig sales [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - October wholesale volumes increased by 4.6%, and November saw a 12% increase, likely driven by rising demand for cured meat [1][4]. - If slaughter volumes in November significantly increase, it may alleviate supply pressures in December and January [4]. - The supply peak may shift to November, reducing pressure in the following months [4]. Price Trends and Forecasts - Despite current supply pressures, prices are in a weak rebound phase, with uncertainty surrounding post-holiday price predictions due to potential supply increases [5]. - The futures market indicates significant price increases for January and March 2025 contracts, influenced by ongoing epidemic impacts [5]. Impact of Epidemics - The epidemic has led to panic selling, but larger enterprises like Muyuan have achieved survival rates above 90%, indicating effective disease control measures [6]. - Smaller enterprises may not have seen similar improvements, highlighting a disparity in epidemic management capabilities [6]. Future Supply Predictions - The supply-demand relationship is expected to normalize in the coming months, with a peak in piglet numbers around September 2025, leading to potential supply adjustments in December [7]. - Large enterprises are reducing sow inventories in response to national policies, which will affect future fat pig supplies [7][8]. Policy and Capacity Reduction - Companies are responding positively to capacity reduction policies, with significant decreases in sow inventories noted in November [8][9]. - The execution of these policies among smallholders and mid-sized enterprises remains to be observed, as they play a crucial role in overall market supply [8][9]. Cost Structures and Profitability - Large enterprises have a complete cost of approximately 12.5 to 13 yuan per kilogram, while smaller farms face higher costs due to weaker epidemic control [10]. - The industry is cautious about future market conditions, with many companies hesitant to hedge significantly due to fears of unexpected capacity reductions [11]. Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - The sentiment within the industry is neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic, with cautious attitudes towards price levels around 14 yuan being considered high [11]. - The current market for piglets shows slight recovery, with prices expected to stabilize above 11 yuan in the future [15]. Inventory and Demand for Processed Products - Frozen product inventories have increased, but sales are hindered by low fresh meat prices, with significant slaughter volumes in October contributing to stockpiling [16]. - Demand for cured meat products is anticipated to rise as production ramps up in December and January [17]. Long-term Price Expectations - Expectations for the second half of 2026 suggest that product prices may exceed 14 yuan, but uncertainties remain regarding capacity adjustments and other influencing factors [18]. Overall Industry Outlook - The livestock industry is currently in a phase of capacity adjustment, with short-term price fluctuations expected to continue until around March or April 2026 [19]. - The overall industry fundamentals are improving, supported by ongoing government policies and market adjustments [19].