钨价坚挺持续走高，12月走势如何

Summary of Tungsten Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the tungsten industry, particularly the developments and trends affecting tungsten prices and market dynamics in 2025 and beyond [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments Macroeconomic Policies - Domestic macroeconomic policies, especially the implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan," provide clear guidance for the development of hard alloys in the tungsten industry, emphasizing a shift from scale expansion to quality prioritization [1][4]. Price Trends - In the first three quarters of 2025, tungsten market prices exhibited different growth characteristics, with significant increases in the first and second quarters, and tungsten powder and tungsten carbide powder growth rates surpassing front-end products in the third quarter [1][5]. - October saw raw material prices rise significantly more than back-end products, with November showing a notable increase in tungsten powder and carbide powder growth rates, a trend expected to continue into December [1][5]. Supply and Production Issues - Tungsten ore production has been declining over the past two years, with a significant reduction compared to 2024. State-owned mines have halted production to meet targets, and small mines have ceased operations due to environmental and production factors, leading to unsatisfactory production levels in October [1][6]. - APT (Ammonium Paratungstate) production saw a notable decline in the third quarter, with limited recovery in the following months, resulting in a supply gap expected to persist into December [1][6][14]. Import and Export Dynamics - In 2025, China's tungsten exports are expected to perform poorly due to regulatory impacts, while imports have significantly increased. This import-export situation may continue in the short term, potentially affecting market supply-demand balance [1][7]. - Changes in import levels or export regulations in the coming year will directly influence market dynamics, necessitating close monitoring of policy changes [1][7]. Psychological Indicators and Market Sentiment - The Psychological Line Indicator (PSY) showed a rebound signal since mid-October, currently at a level indicating an overall upward trend. However, it is crucial to focus on narrative changes rather than relying solely on this indicator for future market predictions [2][3][8]. Future Price Predictions - Future tungsten prices may experience a prolonged consolidation phase after recent increases, with expectations that prices will not drop significantly below previous lows but will stabilize at higher levels [3][10][13]. - The upcoming year is anticipated to see continued reductions in mining quotas and increased foreign ore imports, contributing to ongoing supply tightness [11]. Market Demand and Sectoral Changes - Demand in 2025 is not robust, with emerging industries like military, battery, and nuclear fusion showing some incremental demand, while traditional sectors like automotive tools are experiencing reduced demand [3][12]. - The market is currently adjusting to supply-demand balance, influenced by capital speculation rather than significant growth in actual demand [12]. Long-term Market Outlook - The tungsten market's price trajectory may resemble the coal market's past trends, with potential for a multi-year bottoming process following price increases, influenced by capacity expansions and changes in import and domestic mining quotas [13]. Communication Among Market Participants - Effective communication among market participants is crucial for price transparency and reflecting real market conditions. Daily transaction reports from companies contribute to forming an average price level, highlighting the importance of maintaining good communication across platforms [19]. Additional Important Insights - The supply gap for APT is expected to remain unaddressed in the short term, indicating ongoing supply constraints that could drive market developments [14]. - The upcoming long-term price announcements are anticipated to be stable, with a preference for gradual increases to support market stability [17]. - Monitoring the shipping situation of mining companies and the inventory replenishment of smelting plants will be critical in January, as these factors could further influence market trends [18].