固收-年度展望专题汇报

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market, particularly the 30-year government bonds and their investment value in the current economic climate [1][5][8]. Key Points and Arguments - Market Adjustment Influences: Recent adjustments in the bond market are primarily driven by trading sentiment and institutional behaviors rather than fundamental or liquidity pressures. Public funds are prioritizing risk aversion, while banks are focusing on asset allocation [2][8]. - 30-Year Government Bonds: The current 30-year government bonds are considered to have significant investment value, with both absolute and spread positions being relatively favorable. The after-tax yield of these bonds is comparable to that of mortgage loans, indicating a strong allocation value [1][5]. - Interest Rate Spread: The spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds has risen from historical lows to approximately 40 basis points. However, due to the lack of improvement in household leverage and the real estate cycle, the potential for further steepening of this spread is limited [6]. - Supply and Demand Dynamics: The supply of ultra-long-term government bonds is expected to continue increasing, but the growth will not significantly exceed levels from the past two years. Despite uncertainties on the demand side, institutions are still capable of absorbing substantial supply, indicating manageable overall pressure [7]. - 2026 Monetary Policy Outlook: The fiscal policy is anticipated to remain proactive, with extraordinary increments on the supply side. However, demand-side uncertainties persist, and while total easing may continue, the space for interest rate cuts is expected to be limited to around 20 basis points [3][9][10]. - Liquidity Operations: For 2026, the space for reserve requirement ratio cuts is deemed small, as most banks are nearing the invisible lower limit of 5%. The focus will be on managing high levels of medium-term lending facility (MLF) and reverse repos, requiring substantial annual liquidity injections to maintain stability [11][12]. - First Quarter Liquidity Expectations: In the first quarter of 2026, banks are expected to rely heavily on the central bank's MLF and reverse repos for liquidity, especially given the low issuance of interbank certificates of deposit in the previous quarter [12]. Additional Important Insights - Long-Term Investment Sentiment: The overall sentiment towards the bond market remains optimistic, with expectations of increased participation from banks and insurance companies in 30-year government bonds due to their recognized allocation value [8]. - Economic Support: The anticipated continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy is expected to support economic growth and stabilize financial markets, creating a favorable environment for government borrowing and household deleveraging [13].