若美联储鹰派降息会如何？

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current macroeconomic environment in the U.S. shows signs of divergence, with the services PMI expanding while the manufacturing PMI contracts, indicating an unclear economic outlook that may increase stock market volatility [1][3][4] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to be less affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, as the market has already priced in this information [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cuts: The nature of the Fed's interest rate cuts will significantly impact the U.S. stock market. A dovish cut may raise recession concerns, while a hawkish cut could lead to adjustments in the expected number of cuts for 2026, increasing market volatility [2][9] - Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook: The first quarter of 2026 is expected to perform well due to policy effects and a rebound in EPS. Local real estate and cyclical stocks are anticipated to contribute positively to EPS, although overall market operation remains challenging due to incomplete capital allocation and ongoing overseas risks [1][6] - Employment Data: Mixed signals are present in employment data, with a slowdown in hiring but a decrease in initial jobless claims, indicating resilience in the job market [4] - Yen's Impact on Global Markets: The yen is expected to appreciate slightly around the December 19 interest rate hike, which may trigger unwinding of yen carry trades, impacting global financial markets, particularly U.S. and Hong Kong stocks [7][11] - Dollar Exchange Rate: The dollar is projected to experience a volatile trend until mid-2026, with no significant factors to drive a strong appreciation or depreciation [10] - Global Asset Allocation: Both U.S. and Hong Kong stocks are expected to face volatility in the remaining part of the year. Attention should be paid to the December 19 interest rate hike and its potential effects on market risk appetite [11] Additional Important Insights - AI Bubble and Monetary Policy: The AI bubble is closely linked to the monetary policy cycle. A potential burst of the AI bubble next year, combined with the end of the monetary policy cycle, could exacerbate market volatility [12][13] - Investor Sentiment: Current investor sentiment remains neutral, with a cautious approach towards capital allocation in the Hong Kong market, particularly in AI technology stocks, unless new catalysts emerge [5][6]