固收- 2025→2026，重塑→新途

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the Chinese economy, particularly focusing on the bond and stock markets, macroeconomic policies, and consumer behavior in 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Transition and Growth - It is anticipated that by 2026, China will experience a transition from traditional economic drivers to new ones, with emerging industries and high-end manufacturing gaining prominence [1][3][4]. - The "three new economies" are expected to account for 18% of GDP in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.7% [1][4]. Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment is projected to benefit from industrial upgrades and international expansion, while infrastructure investment remains resilient due to proactive fiscal policies [1][4]. - Real estate investment may continue to drag down overall economic performance [1][4]. Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer market in 2025 is characterized by strong policy-driven growth but weak endogenous growth, with a low household consumption rate compared to developed countries [5][6]. - There is a need to repair household balance sheets and focus on lower-tier cities for potential growth in consumption [5][6]. Regional Consumption Patterns - Higher consumption tendencies are observed in central and western provinces, influenced by income growth expectations and leverage burdens [6]. - Future consumption policies may focus on lower-tier markets to enhance spending [6]. Service Consumption Trends - The proportion of per capita service consumption has been rising, reaching 46.1% by 2024, indicating a shift towards service-oriented consumption policies [7]. Inflation and Price Index Predictions - CPI is expected to rise moderately in 2026, driven by core CPI improvements and rising pork prices, while oil prices may exert downward pressure [8]. - PPI is projected to narrow its year-on-year decline, potentially turning positive in the second and third quarters of 2026 [8]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Outlook - Fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to be more aggressive, with an increase in the general fiscal deficit rate and the issuance of special bonds [10]. - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with anticipated rate cuts and adjustments to the monetary policy framework [11]. Market Behavior Predictions - In a neutral macroeconomic environment, asset allocation will be driven by stock-bond price ratios and institutional behaviors [12]. - In scenarios of economic recovery, the stock market may enter a bullish phase, while long-term interest rates could face adjustment risks [13]. Additional Important Insights - The analysis emphasizes the need for a comprehensive five-dimensional framework to understand market dynamics, incorporating fiscal inflation and government bond pricing [2]. - The records highlight the importance of structural adjustments and policy support to enhance consumer confidence and spending [5][6].