全球 AI 供应链更新：CoWoS 产能扩张与中国 AI 半导体发展-Greater China Semiconductors Global AI Supply-Chain Updates; CoWoS expansion and China AI semi development

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry Focus: Greater China Semiconductors, specifically related to AI supply chain updates and CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) expansion in China [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - Investment Recommendations: - Overweight (OW): TSMC (Top Pick), SMIC, Aspeed, MediaTek, Alchip, GUC, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, ASMPT, AllRing [5] - Memory Stocks: Winbond (Top Pick), Phison, Nanya Tech, APMemory, GigaDevice, Macronix [5] - Underweight (UW): UMC, Hua Hong, Vanguard, WIN Semi, OmniVision, ASMedia [5] - Long-term Demand Drivers: - Tech Inflation: Anticipated price elasticity affecting demand for tech products, with rising costs in wafers, OSAT, and memory impacting margins for chip designers into 2026 [5] - AI Cannibalization: AI is expected to replace some human jobs, leading to demand weakness and a shift in the semiconductor supply chain prioritizing AI semiconductors over non-AI [5] - Tech Diffusion: A resurgence in AI semiconductor demand driven by generative AI, expanding into various sectors like robotics and AI glasses [5] - China AI Development: - DeepSeek is expected to stimulate demand for inferencing AI, raising questions about the sufficiency of domestic GPU supply [5] - The potential dilution of domestic GPU supply chains due to Nvidia H200 shipments [5] Valuation Comparisons - Key Metrics: - TSMC's P/E ratio is projected to be 32.8 in 2024, decreasing to 19.4 by 2026, with an expected EPS growth of 1.5% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025 [6] - SMIC's P/E is not measurable (NM) due to negative growth projections, while UMC is expected to see a decline in EPS growth [6] - Memory Sector: - GigaDevice is projected to have a P/E of 76.5 in 2025, with significant growth expected in the following years [7] - Winbond's stock is expected to rise by 32% with a projected EPS growth of 6.3% in 2024 [7] Market Trends - AI Semiconductor Growth: - AI semiconductors are projected to account for approximately 34% of TSMC's revenue by 2027 [16] - The global semiconductor market size is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, with cloud AI semiconductor TAM projected to grow to $235 billion by 2025 [75] - Cloud Capex: - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to increase capital expenditures significantly, with a projected $621 billion in spending in 2026 [82] - Nvidia's CEO estimates global cloud capex could reach $1 trillion by 2028 [84] Additional Insights - CoWoS Capacity Expansion: TSMC may expand its CoWoS capacity to 125k wafers per month by 2026 due to strong AI demand [108] - Monthly Token Processing: Data indicates that AI inference demand is on the rise, suggesting a growing market for AI semiconductors [89] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, focusing on the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of AI and its implications for investment strategies.