11 月 GB NVL72 机柜情况-Greater China Technology Hardware-GB NVL72 Racks in November

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: Greater China Technology Hardware - Focus: Monthly and quarterly rack shipment forecasts for 2025, specifically for GPU AI server ODMs Key Companies Discussed 1. Quanta Computer Inc. (2382.TW) - November revenue: ~NT$193 billion (+11% month-over-month, +36% year-over-year) [4] - Estimated GB200/300 rack shipments in November: 1.0-1.1k racks (up from 850-900 racks in October) [4] - Expected slight decline in December shipments, with a total of ~2.6k racks in 4Q25 [4] 2. Wistron Corporation (3231.TW) - November revenue: Record high at NT$281 billion (+52% month-over-month, +195% year-over-year) [5] - Higher L10 computing trays shipments: 1.2-1.3k rack equivalents (up from 300-350 in October) [5] - Notebook shipments: 2.2 million (+5% month-over-month) [5] 3. Hon Hai Precision (2317.TW) - November GB200 rack shipments: ~2.6k racks (flat month-over-month) [6] - Expected lower server rack shipments in December due to year-end holidays [6] Core Insights and Forecasts - Rack Shipment Forecasts: - Total GB200/300 racks forecast for 2025: 27.3k (revised down from 28k) [3] - 4Q25 rack builds expected to grow materially quarter-over-quarter to 13.5-14k racks, up from 8-8.5k in 3Q [3] - 4Q25 rack builds for Quanta adjusted to 2.5k (down from ~3.5k) due to conservative management outlook [3] - Market Dynamics: - Wistron’s stronger momentum led to an increase in rack builds by ~300 racks in 4Q [3] - Anticipated growth in AI revenue for Quanta in 1Q26, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3] Additional Insights - Future Projections: - Initial thoughts for 2026 suggest potential for 70-80k racks, up from previous estimates of 60-70k, based on inventory assumptions of ~2 million Blackwell chips [11] - Market Share: - Rack supply share for 2025: Hon Hai (52%), Wistron (21%), Quanta (19%), Wiwynn (2%), Others (7%) [20] - Revenue Trends: - Quanta and Wistron showing significant year-over-year revenue growth, indicating strong demand in the technology hardware sector [4][5] Risks and Considerations - Upside Risks: - Better-than-expected demand in AI server business and potential M&A activities [28] - Downside Risks: - Slower-than-expected AI server penetration and geopolitical developments affecting foreign investment [30] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the performance and outlook of major players in the Greater China Technology Hardware industry, particularly in the context of GPU AI server rack shipments.