2025-12-09 01:39Summary of Key Takeaways from the Conference Call on Asia Electrical Equipment Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call was on the Asian power grid equipment and energy storage system (ESS) sectors, particularly in Singapore [1] Company Insights Transformer Makers - Investors showed more interest in LS Electric, Sieyuan Electric, TBEA, and Chung Hsin Electric due to more attractive valuations compared to Hyundai Electric and Fortune Electric [1] - LS Electric is expected to receive new orders from Amazon Web Services (AWS) for US datacenters, reflecting its strong track record [2] - PRC transformer makers, particularly Sieyuan and TBEA, reported significant growth in overseas orders, with Sieyuan's export revenue increasing by 89% year-over-year in 1H25 and TBEA's new orders from abroad rising by 88% year-over-year [2] Quality Comparison - Hyundai Electric indicated that the failure rate for Korean transformers is 0.01%, while for Chinese transformers it is 0.03%, suggesting a slight quality advantage for Korean products [3] Production Cost Analysis - Production costs for high voltage transformers in Korea are 65% of those in the US, while costs in China are estimated to be 10-20% lower than in Korea [6] Market Dynamics PRC Power Grid Capex - PRC power grid capital expenditure (capex) growth was revised down to 8-9% year-over-year for 2025, from a previous estimate of 13%, due to slower-than-expected approvals for new projects [7] Impact of US Legislation on ESS - The US "One Big Beautiful Bill" will affect Sungrow's ESS business by disqualifying projects using Chinese equipment from receiving a 30% investment tax credit. Sungrow plans to mitigate this by sourcing batteries from South Korea and Japan and offering price discounts for US sales [8] Company Valuations Chung Hsin Electric - Target price set at NT$200 based on a 21x 2026E EPS, supported by strong order backlog from Taipower's grid upgrade projects [9] LS Electric - Target price of W560,000/share based on a DCF model, reflecting stable cash flows in the power grid equipment industry [11] Sieyuan Electric - Target price of Rmb170.00/share based on a DCF model, with stable cash flows expected [13] Sungrow Power Supply - Target price of Rmb240.00 based on a DCF valuation, with a focus on long-term potential returns [15] TBEA Co - Target price of Rmb26.00/share derived from a DCF model, with stable cash flows anticipated [18] Risks Chung Hsin Electric - Risks include slower-than-expected sales growth, budget cuts on power grid upgrades, operational accidents, and weaker macro fundamentals [10] LS Electric - Key risks include lower-than-expected overseas new orders, higher tariffs, and rising raw material costs [12] Sieyuan Electric - Risks involve lower-than-expected PRC grid capex, overseas new orders, and raw material costs [14] Sungrow Power Supply - Risks include slower solar installation growth, lower ESS demand, and intensified trade tensions affecting exports [17] TBEA Co - Risks include lower polysilicon prices, higher prices for key materials, and reduced transformer demand [19]