尽管利率逆风，美联储会议前风险偏好仍具韧性-GOAL Kickstart_ Resilient risk appetite into the Fed meeting despite rates headwinds

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the US equity markets and macroeconomic conditions leading up to the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting - The current environment is characterized by a resilient risk appetite despite headwinds from interest rates Core Insights and Arguments 1. Market Performance: US equity markets closed higher last week, supported by dovish expectations from the Fed. The Risk Appetite Indicator reached 0.66, marking the largest two-week increase since May [1][7] 2. Mixed Macro Data: - ISM manufacturing index fell for the ninth consecutive month - ADP reported the largest one-month drop in employment since March 2023 - ISM services index showed improvement - Core PCE inflation rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.83% year-over-year - Initial jobless claims decreased to 191k, below expectations [1] 3. Upcoming Economic Reports: Key data releases include the JOLTS report and the employment cost index, with expectations of 7,100k and a 0.8% increase respectively [1] 4. Volatility in Q4: Following a 'Goldilocks' backdrop of growth optimism and dovish Fed expectations, markets have experienced increased volatility in Q4, particularly in tech-heavy indices like Nasdaq [2] 5. Bond Yields: There has been upward pressure on bond yields, especially in Japan and Germany, with the 30-year JGB yield reaching 3.4%, a rise of approximately 110 basis points year-to-date [2][9] 6. Central Bank Divergence: The dispersion in G10 central bank pricing has widened, with more banks now anticipating rate hikes in 2026 [2][13] 7. Investment Strategy: The company maintains a modestly pro-risk stance into 2026, favoring equities over bonds, commodities, and cash, while underweighting credit [3][6] 8. Market Expectations for Rate Cuts: The market is pricing in a 55% probability of more than two rate cuts in the next 12 months [6][17] Additional Important Insights - Sector Performance: Growth-sensitive segments, particularly cyclicals and the Russell 2000, have shown strong performance recently [2][15] - Global Economic Sentiment: The sentiment indicators suggest a cautious but optimistic outlook among investors, with a notable focus on diversification and hedging strategies [3][27] - Asset Allocation Recommendations: The report includes specific asset allocation recommendations, indicating overweight positions in equities and underweight in corporate bonds [20] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the US equity markets, macroeconomic indicators, and strategic investment insights.