Thungela Resources (OTCPK:TNGR.F) Trading Update Transcript

Thungela Resources Trading Update Summary Company Overview - Company: Thungela Resources (OTCPK:TNGR.F) - Date of Update: December 09, 2025 - Context: Pre-closed statement for the year ending December 31, 2025 Key Points Production and Operational Performance - Thungela has operated for approximately 33 months without any fatalities, which is critical for maintaining production momentum [5] - Full-year production guidance was set at 12.8-13.6 million tons, with expectations to reach around 13.7 million tons of export saleable production [5][11] - Elders Colliery's ramp-up contributed significantly to higher production, alongside strong performance from other collieries like Mafube [5][6] - Ensham in Australia is expected to report export saleable production of approximately 3.8 million tons, within the guidance range of 3.7-4.1 million tons [6] Market Conditions and Pricing - Energy markets have been affected by geopolitical risks and economic sentiment, leading to volatility in thermal coal prices [8] - Thermal coal prices declined during 2025, with Richards Bay averaging just below $90 per ton, down from $105 a year ago, indicating a $15 per ton margin swing [9][10] - Newcastle benchmark coal prices averaged about $105 per ton, down from $135 in 2024, with South African coal facing wider discounts [9][10] Financial Performance - Export equity sales for South Africa are expected to be around 13.6 million tons for 2025, up from 12.6 million tons in 2024 [12] - Free on board (FOB) cost per ton for South Africa is expected to be below guidance due to strong production outcomes and a non-cash rehabilitation adjustment [11] - Capital expenditure (CapEx) for 2025 is projected at ZAR 2.6 billion, with ZAR 1.4 billion for sustaining capital and ZAR 1.2 billion for expansion [14] Strategic Initiatives - Thungela is undergoing a portfolio optimization, including asset disposals to reduce environmental liabilities [19][20] - The company has initiated a disposal program for certain assets, which is expected to positively impact future liabilities [20] - Investments are prioritized through the cycle, with ZAR 2.1 billion returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks [21] Future Outlook - The company is studying potential projects to fill production gaps from Greenside and Khwezela, with a focus on the No. 4 Seam from Elders and Zibulo North Shaft [26][31] - Long-term thermal coal price expectations hover between $90-$100 per ton, based on analyses from Wood Mackenzie [38] - The board is considering the balance between maintaining a cash buffer and returning capital to shareholders, with flexibility to adjust based on market conditions [43][44] Additional Considerations - The strong Rand poses a significant headwind for the business, impacting cash flow and valuation [18] - The coalbed methane project is progressing, with significant capital already spent to secure legal tenure and prepare for future development [48] Conclusion Thungela Resources is navigating a challenging market environment with a focus on maintaining production levels, optimizing its asset portfolio, and ensuring shareholder returns while preparing for future growth opportunities. The company remains committed to its operational safety record and is strategically positioned to adapt to market fluctuations.