Toll Brothers(US:TOL)2025-12-09 14:32Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered 11,292 homes at an average price of $960,000, generating a record $10.8 billion in home sales revenues, with an adjusted gross margin of 27.3% and earnings of $13.49 per diluted share [4][5] - In the fourth quarter, the company generated $3.4 billion in home sales revenue with an adjusted gross margin of 27.1% and earnings of $4.58 per diluted share, which was slightly below guidance due to a delayed sale [5][19] - The company reported a net income of $1.35 billion for the full year, down from $1.57 billion the previous year, primarily due to a one-time gain in the prior year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company grew its community count by 9% and maintained strong operating cash flows of $1.1 billion, returning approximately $750 million to stockholders through share repurchases and dividends [5][21] - Spec homes accounted for approximately 54% of deliveries in fiscal 2025, allowing the company to appeal to buyers looking for quicker move-in options [8] - The average spend on design studio selections and upgrades was approximately $206,000 per home, benefiting margins [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted relative strength in the East and coastal California markets, with little meaningful variation in demand among buyer segments [11] - The average age of first-time home buyers is now 40 years, with the majority of sales in the market going to move-up or move-down buyers [12] - The company is experiencing a structural undersupply of homes in the U.S., which supports demand for new homes [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to exit the multifamily business over the next few years, using cash proceeds to grow its core home building business and return capital to stockholders [16][51] - The company is focusing on a balanced portfolio of build-to-order and spec homes to improve efficiencies and reduce construction cycle times [7] - The company aims to grow community count by 8%-10% in fiscal 2026, targeting 480-490 communities [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the housing market, noting that mortgage rates have stabilized and demographic trends remain favorable [9][10] - The company is not assuming any market improvement in its guidance for fiscal 2026, reflecting a conservative approach [40] - Management highlighted the importance of consumer confidence and affordability pressures as key factors influencing the housing market [87] Other Important Information - The company ended the fiscal year with over $3.5 billion in liquidity, including $1.3 billion in cash [21] - The company plans to repurchase $650 million of shares in fiscal 2026, with most occurring later in the year [24][89] - The company is experiencing a cancellation rate of 4.3% of beginning backlog, consistent with previous quarters [19] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: What are the assumptions for the active adult buyer? - Management noted that the active adult segment is performing well, representing about 17% of revenue, and expects this group to continue to outperform in softer market conditions [32] Question: Could the number of owned lots stay flat or decline next year? - Management indicated that owned lots may continue to decrease slightly as the company focuses on land banking and joint ventures [36] Question: What is driving the implied moderation in gross margin through the year? - Management explained that the moderation is due to a higher incentive on spec homes, which are expected to increase in the latter part of the year [44] Question: How does the company view consumer confidence and the desire to sell homes? - Management expressed that while consumer confidence is a concern, there are long-term tailwinds that could improve the market as time progresses [87]