券商出海深度研究：新叙事下的投资主线

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The brokerage sector is expected to experience stagnation in 2025, with low valuations, suggesting opportunities for cross-year investment strategies. The regulatory environment is anticipated to shift towards a more lenient phase, potentially involving adjustments in risk control indicators, IPO reviews, and securities lending derivatives policies [1][3]. - In 2026, traditional brokerage businesses such as economic services, margin trading, and investments are projected to see modest growth, while investment banking, asset management, and overseas operations are expected to become new growth engines, driving profit growth for listed brokerages by approximately 20%, with leading firms likely experiencing even higher growth rates [1][3]. Key Trends in Brokerage Sector - The rise of overseas business is a new narrative, with revenue share and growth rates reaching historical highs. The influx of A-share listings in Hong Kong, cross-border investment demand, and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to drive continued growth in overseas operations for leading brokerages [1][3][4]. - The concentration of international business among Chinese brokerages is high, with a CR8 of 94% and a CR3 of 66%, indicating significant advantages for top firms like CITIC Securities, CICC, Guotai Junan, and Huatai Securities in terms of revenue, assets, and licenses [1][7]. Competitive Landscape - Chinese brokerages are categorized into two internationalization paths: mergers and acquisitions (e.g., CITIC Securities acquiring Lyon Securities) and organic growth through establishing networks (e.g., CICC building its presence in major financial centers) [10]. - The overseas business structure of leading brokerages is primarily focused on investment banking and investment activities, with CITIC Securities and CICC leading in Hong Kong IPO market share [11]. Recommendations for Investment - Recommended stocks include Huatai Securities for its comprehensive advantages in wealth management and overseas business, Guotai Junan for its synergy and low valuation, and CICC for its strong overseas business capabilities. Other notable mentions are GF Securities and Dongfang Securities, along with IT firm Tonghuashun [5][8]. - The brokerage sector is seen as having significant room for improvement compared to top international firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, particularly in business scale and personnel allocation [2][13]. Future Outlook - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from a favorable regulatory environment and increasing demand for overseas business, with a focus on enhancing profitability and service capabilities for the real economy [4][6]. - The anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to improve investment banking revenues, investment returns, and reduce liability costs, leading to rapid growth for leading brokerages [13]. Additional Insights - The international business revenue of 14 sample brokerages reached 40.1 billion RMB in mid-2024, marking a significant year-on-year increase and a historical high [6]. - The competitive landscape for overseas operations is heavily influenced by licensing and capital requirements, with CITIC Securities showing a notable annualized ROE of 23% for its international business, significantly higher than its overall ROE of 10% [9].