固收-2026流动性：总量时代的转折？

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the transformation of the Chinese financial system, highlighting a significant shift in the structure of social financing (社融) where government bond issuance surpasses new credit growth. [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - Government Bond Issuance: In 2025, net financing from government bonds is expected to reach 14.5 trillion RMB, potentially exceeding new credit issuance, which is projected at 16-17 trillion RMB. By 2026, net financing from government bonds may approach 16 trillion RMB, indicating a major structural change in social financing. [1][2][3] - Monetary Policy Shift: The concept of "moderate easing" is introduced, focusing on supporting social financing rather than merely expanding credit through traditional methods like interest rate cuts. This approach aims to stabilize social financing totals and support the transition from old to new economic drivers. [1][5] - Long-term Capital Demand: The new economy requires long-term patient capital, which contrasts with the traditional high-turnover debt funding model. This necessitates adjustments in monetary policy to accommodate the changing nature of capital demand. [4][5] - Banking Sector Dynamics: The asset-liability structure of banks is changing significantly, with government leverage becoming crucial for stabilizing social financing. Excluding government influence, the overall asset-liability scale is contracting. [6][7] - Interest Rate Risk Management: As the bond market expands, managing interest rate risk becomes increasingly important. The need for a tailored approach to interest rate risk management is emphasized, drawing on international experiences. [12][13] Additional Important Content - "反内卷" (Anti-Competition): The policy aims to combat unreasonable competition practices, such as manual interest subsidies, to maintain a normal yield curve and optimize financial operations. [9] - Direct Financing: Increasing the proportion of direct financing is identified as an effective way to lower financing costs for the real economy, provided that pricing does not become inverted. [11] - Challenges in the Bond Market: The bond market faces challenges such as the rapid accumulation of interest rate risk and the mismatch between asset and liability growth rates. [18] - 2026 Asset Trends: Key factors influencing asset trends in 2026 include credit growth shifts, deposit migration, and the importance of supporting the real economy. [19][20] - Central Bank Actions: The central bank's bond purchasing is primarily for liquidity management rather than addressing interest rate risk, with expectations of increased bond supply in 2026. [22][23] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Chinese financial landscape.