中国运动服饰：调研-行业排序未变；安踏 “买入”、滔搏 “买入”、李宁 “买入”

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Sportswear industry, particularly the performance and outlook of major brands including Nike, Anta, Topsports, and Li Ning [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Nike's Market Position: Nike retains its No.1 ranking in both "intent to purchase" and "most innovative brand" categories, despite a slight decline of 1 percentage point quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) [2][3]. - Anta's Performance: Anta's Net Promoter Score (NPS) increased by 11 points QoQ, moving from 10 to 4 in rankings, indicating a solid brand equity among Chinese consumers [3][10]. - Topsports' Recovery: Anticipated support from Nike, due to organizational changes, is expected to aid Topsports in recovering sales, which are heavily reliant on Nike products (50-60% of sales) [3][4]. - Promotional Environment: 65% of survey respondents noted an increase in promotional activity for sports footwear and clothing, up from 60% in September [19][20]. Financial Performance and Projections - Anta's Sales Guidance: Anta is expected to meet its full-year retail sales guidance, projecting low single-digit year-over-year growth for its business [3][4]. - Topsports Valuation: The target price for Topsports shares is set at HK$3.75, based on a 16x calendarized year 2025E P/E, reflecting a 45% discount to Nike's historical trading P/E [40][42]. - Li Ning's Growth Outlook: Despite anticipated weak growth in 2025, Li Ning is expected to resume earnings growth in 2026 due to enhanced brand equity and new product rollouts [35][36]. Additional Important Insights - Consumer Sentiment: The survey indicates a shift in consumer preferences, with Nike leading in "intent to purchase" at 21%, followed by Li Ning at 17% and Anta at 13% [12][14]. - Discount Trends: The percentage of consumers receiving discounts greater than 10% on recent purchases increased to 29% in November, indicating a competitive pricing environment [23][24]. - Nike's Organizational Changes: Nike's recent restructuring aims to enhance operational flexibility and brand support in China, which is expected to positively impact Topsports [3][26]. Conclusion - The China sportswear market is experiencing dynamic shifts, with Nike maintaining a strong position, while Anta and Li Ning show promising growth potential. The promotional landscape is becoming increasingly competitive, which may influence pricing strategies and consumer purchasing behavior in the near future.