面板行业专家会议

Summary of Panel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The panel industry is experiencing a mixed demand situation, with brand manufacturers maintaining high procurement levels despite declining sales data. In Q4, procurement in mainland China is expected to remain flat year-on-year at 23 million units, indicating positive market demand expectations despite inventory accumulation [1][3] - The global panel shipment volume is projected to reach 246 to 247 million units in 2025, with a slight increase expected in 2026. The overall shipment area is anticipated to grow by approximately 2%, driven by sustained high levels of small and medium-sized panel shipments [1][6] Key Insights and Arguments - Demand Drivers: Several factors are expected to positively influence demand in the first half of next year, including potential continuation of subsidy policies in mainland China, promotional events like the 618 shopping festival, and international events such as the World Cup and Winter Olympics. If the U.S. government issues additional subsidies, consumer demand could be further stimulated [1][4] - Price Trends: Panel manufacturers believe current prices are near the bottom, leading to price increases starting in November. Smaller clients are already feeling the pressure, while larger clients are expected to negotiate price increases in January. The ability of panel manufacturers to coordinate production during the Chinese New Year will significantly impact price increases in Q1 [1][4] - Supply and Production Rates: The current supply-demand situation in the LCD market shows a slight oversupply, with an excess rate of 13%-14% without considering capacity depreciation, and 11%-12% when accounting for it. The trend towards larger sizes and the retirement of older generations may lead to a tightening of LCD capacity in the next two to three years [3][15] Additional Important Points - Inventory Management: Brand manufacturers are expected to increase procurement in December and January to avoid supply shortages due to delayed factory operations after the late Chinese New Year. This procurement peak is anticipated to last until April or early May [1][4] - Market Segmentation: The demand for large and ultra-large televisions (65, 75, 85, 98, and 100 inches) remains strong, particularly in North America where prices are very competitive. The average price for a 100-inch TV is below $1,000, making these products attractive to consumers [7][8] - Regional Performance: By the end of 2025, the average screen size in North America is expected to reach 52 inches, while mainland China could see an average of 63 inches. Other regions like Southeast Asia and Oceania are projected to have average sizes around 45 inches [9] - Profitability Challenges: Current low panel prices are making it difficult for hardware manufacturers to achieve profitability. Rising costs of other raw materials are increasing overall production costs, leading many manufacturers to rely on software platforms for advertising revenue to offset hardware losses [5] Conclusion - The panel industry is navigating a complex landscape with mixed demand signals and pricing pressures. While there are positive indicators for future demand, particularly for large screens, manufacturers must carefully manage production and inventory to optimize profitability in a challenging market environment.