各省年度电价谈判进展及展望

Summary of Conference Call on Annual Electricity Pricing Negotiations Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the annual electricity pricing negotiations across various provinces in China for the year 2026, focusing on the expected changes in pricing mechanisms and market dynamics in the electricity sector. Key Points by Province Guangdong Province - The annual trading scale for 2026 is expected to increase by 10%, with a cap of 420 billion kilowatt-hours. The medium to long-term price range is set between 3,200 to 554 RMB/MWh, with potential adjustments within the year [5][6] - The signing ratio for both generation and sales sides must reach 80%, or else additional guarantees will be required. All new energy generation will enter the market, with an additional 4 billion kilowatt-hours from nuclear power [5][6] - As of December 22, the wholesale contract volume is approximately 30 billion kilowatt-hours at an average price of 3,200 RMB/MWh, while retail contracts total 220 billion kilowatt-hours at an average price of 379 RMB/MWh [5][6] Guangxi Province - The 2026 trading arrangements are yet to be published, but a draft indicates a support for pricing, requiring a signing ratio of over 60% for both generation and sales sides. The price range for competitive generation types is set between 336 to 5,505 RMB/MWh [7] - Retail prices have fluctuated, currently around 260 to 270 RMB/MWh, with expectations for policy clarification [7] Shandong Province - The formal plan for 2026 is still pending, but a draft suggests the continuation of the capacity price mechanism for 25 years and limits on bilateral negotiation ratios [7] - A new retail price cap mechanism has been introduced, with quarterly retail contract signings and monthly wholesale contract signings. Market expectations indicate a price drop, with retail prices around 370 RMB/MWh [7] Sichuan Province - The 2026 market policy includes a fully operational spot market and a revenue-sharing mechanism on the retail side, with a default cap of 0.05 RMB. Expected retail prices are projected to decrease by 3 to 5 cents compared to 2025 [10] - The government authorization contract mechanism for coal power will be canceled, transitioning to a spot market cost compensation mechanism [10] Jiangsu Province - The average retail signing price is around 330 to 340 RMB/MWh, with wholesale prices signaling at 350 RMB/MWh, a decrease from 415 RMB/MWh in 2025 [11][12] - Monthly prices are stable between 330 to 350 RMB/MWh, influencing pricing in other Eastern provinces [11] Hubei Province - The expected trading price for 2026 is projected to decrease by 2 to 3 cents compared to 2025, where the average transaction price was approximately 460 RMB/MWh [13] Market Dynamics and Trends - The overall expectation for the 2026 market is that prices will remain stable or slightly lower than in 2025 due to ample supply and new generation capacity coming online [9] - The decline in spot prices is attributed to increased supply, slow load growth, and lower prices for primary energy sources [18] - The green electricity market is facing challenges, with many renewable energy companies not planning to sell green energy at the annual level due to unclear pricing mechanisms [8][20] Risks and Challenges - There are risks associated with early retail transactions potentially leading to mismatches with long-term contracts, which could create revenue uncertainty [14] - The low pricing in Jiangsu is driven by low bids from sales companies and unfavorable supply-demand dynamics, with future improvements dependent on market adjustments [17] Government Policies - The government aims to align long-term electricity prices closer to spot prices, particularly in Shandong, while ensuring compensation mechanisms for generation companies to maintain a competitive environment [24] Conclusion - The electricity market in China is undergoing significant changes with various provinces implementing new pricing mechanisms and policies for 2026. The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism for stable pricing, but challenges remain in aligning market dynamics and ensuring fair compensation for electricity producers.