中国-11 月经济活动数据前瞻：零售疲软、投资低迷、工业生产略有改善-China_ November activity data preview_ Weaker retail sales, still-depressed investment, and slightly better industrial production

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically the activity data for November, including industrial production (IP), fixed asset investment (FAI), and retail sales [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Industrial Production (IP) Growth: - Expected to increase to 5.1% year-on-year (yoy) in November from 4.9% yoy in October, driven by improved export growth, which is projected to rise to +5.9% yoy in November from -1.1% yoy in October [4][5]. - Notable decline in auto output growth, dropping to 3.0% yoy in November from 11.3% yoy in October [4]. - Steel production continues to contract, with estimates showing a year-on-year decline of -1.8% in November [4]. 2. Fixed Asset Investment (FAI): - Anticipated to remain depressed at -9.5% yoy in November, an improvement from -11.4% yoy in October [5]. - Approximately 60% of the FAI contraction in October was attributed to statistical corrections rather than a genuine slowdown [5]. - Ongoing "anti-involution" policies and a prolonged property downturn are expected to continue affecting manufacturing and property investments [5]. 3. Retail Sales Growth: - Forecasted to slow to 2.3% yoy in November from 2.9% yoy in October, primarily due to declining auto sales and the earlier start of the "Singles' Day" Online Shopping Festival, which shifted some demand from November to October [5]. - Auto retail sales volume growth is expected to drop significantly to -8.1% yoy in November from -0.5% yoy in October [5]. 4. Comparison with Market Consensus: - The forecasts for retail sales and FAI are below market consensus, while the IP forecast aligns closely with consensus estimates [5]. Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that the recent slump in FAI is unlikely to significantly impact the official Q4 GDP figures due to the statistical corrections by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) [5]. - The services industry output index growth is expected to remain stable and above retail sales growth in November, indicating a potential divergence in sector performance [5]. This summary encapsulates the key points regarding the Chinese economic activity data for November, highlighting the trends in industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales, along with their implications for the broader economic outlook.