FOMC 降息 25 个基点；2 票鹰派反对、1 票鸽派反对；SEP 点阵图中值未变，6 票偏鹰派- FOMC Lowers Fed Funds Rate by 25bp; Two Hawkish Dissents and One Dovish Dissent; SEP Median Dot Unchanged, With Six Hawkish

Summary of Key Points from the FOMC Meeting Industry Overview - The document discusses the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its decisions regarding the federal funds rate, which impacts the broader financial and economic landscape. Core Points and Arguments 1. Fed Funds Rate Adjustment The FOMC lowered the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50-3.75% during its December meeting. Kansas City Fed President Schmid and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee dissented against the cut, preferring to maintain the rate, while Governor Miran favored a larger cut of 50 basis points. The Committee emphasized that future adjustments would depend on economic data and risk assessments [2][1]. 2. Economic Projections The median projection in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027, leading to a terminal rate of 3.125%, unchanged from the previous median. There were six participants advocating for a higher rate in 2025 and one for a lower rate, reflecting differing views on future economic conditions [3][1]. 3. GDP Growth Forecast The median forecast for real GDP growth has been revised upward across the projection horizon. Growth estimates increased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7% in 2025, 0.5 percentage points to 2.3% in 2026, and 0.1 percentage points to 2.0% in 2027. The 2026 upgrade is partly attributed to the mechanical effects of the government shutdown, estimated at 0.3 percentage points [4][1]. 4. Inflation Projections The median core PCE inflation projection was revised down by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. The headline core PCE inflation projection was also adjusted downwards, indicating a more favorable inflation outlook [8][1]. 5. Reserve Management Purchases The Committee announced the initiation of reserve management purchases starting Friday, aiming to maintain reserves at an "ample" level. The New York Fed indicated these purchases would total approximately $40 billion per month, in addition to $20 billion per month from reinvestments of mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills, leading to a total of about $60 billion in Treasury bill purchases monthly for the upcoming months [9][1]. Additional Important Information - The document includes various disclosures and regulatory information regarding the analysts and the firm, Goldman Sachs, emphasizing the importance of considering this report as one factor in investment decisions [6][1][11][1]. - The report highlights that the views expressed are those of the analysts and have not been influenced by the firm's business or client relationships, ensuring the integrity of the analysis provided [11][1]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the FOMC meeting and the implications for the financial markets and economic outlook.