中国房地产-中央经济工作会议聚焦：化解风险，力稳楼市-China Property CEWC Focus on Defusing Risk Strive to Stabilize Property Market

Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Sector Industry Overview - Industry: China Property Sector - Event: Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) held on December 10-11, 2025 Key Points and Arguments 1. Risk Management and Market Stabilization: - The conference emphasized the need to take proactive steps to defuse risks in key areas and stabilize the property market through city-specific policies aimed at controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing existing supply [1][2][7] - The focus is on encouraging inventory purchases for social housing and deepening the reform of the housing provident fund [1][7] 2. Policy Tone and Intentions: - Compared to previous meetings, the tone in December 2025 is seen as more proactive than in April and July 2025, but less decisive than in December 2024 [2] - The language used indicates a shift from a strong push for stabilization to a more moderate approach, recognizing the imbalance of weak domestic demand against strong supply [2] 3. Local Stimulus and Monetary Policy: - A new round of local demand-side stimulus is anticipated, including home purchase and mortgage interest subsidies, although these are not expected to significantly alter home price expectations due to abundant supply [3] - There is a low likelihood of targeted monetary easing or pro-leverage initiatives in the near term, but urban renewals and REIT approvals are expected to accelerate [3] 4. Market Reactions and Sales Outlook: - The property sector experienced a share price correction in early December due to weak sales and price declines, particularly in Tier 1 cities, alongside expectations of policy easing following Vanke's debt extension [4] - A short-lived policy-driven rebound in share prices is expected, with continued soft sales projected for Q4 2025 and limited improvement in household confidence [4] 5. Investment Recommendations: - Analysts suggest late December as a better entry point for reviewing the sector after the recent price corrections, with top picks including Jinmao, C&D, and CRL [4] Other Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of stabilizing investment and resolving local government debt risks while maintaining a necessary fiscal deficit and ensuring stable economic growth [1][7] - The need for a moderate recovery in price levels and stabilization of investment from further decline was acknowledged, indicating a cautious approach to future developments in the property market [2][3] This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property sector, emphasizing risk management, policy intentions, and market dynamics.