电解铝行业分析及展望

Industry Analysis and Outlook for the Electrolytic Aluminum Sector Industry Overview - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to maintain a favorable outlook and profit levels in 2026, benefiting from supply-side reforms and dual carbon policies, with room for growth in the domestic market despite slow overseas project launches [1][3] - The price of aluminum in Shanghai reached nearly 22,500 RMB/ton in late November to early December, with significant upward adjustments and total positions hitting a historical high [1][5] Key Insights and Arguments - Profit Performance: In November, the profit in the electrolytic aluminum industry exceeded 5,000 RMB, marking a new high for the year, with an average profit of approximately 3,850 RMB for the first eleven months, the highest in recent years, driven by rising aluminum prices and decreasing energy and electricity costs [1][10] - Alumina Price Trends: Alumina prices have been declining, currently below 2,400 RMB, primarily due to ample ore supply and an increase in imported ore proportions [1][11] - Future Profit Expectations: The industry is projected to see profits and market conditions in 2026 surpass those of 2025, with price levels expected to be higher [3][24] - Anode Price Forecast: Anode prices are expected to rebound slightly due to a decrease in petroleum coke inventory and price increases, with potential supply tightness from electrolytic cell upgrades [4][13] Overseas Market Dynamics - Impact of Overseas Supply: Recent supply disruptions, such as Century Aluminum's reduction of 200,000 tons, have had limited impact on the overall market, with domestic supply elasticity being insufficient [6][35] - Cautious Outlook on New Projects: A conservative stance is held regarding new overseas projects, with many facing uncertainties due to issues like import quotas and power construction [7][32] Capacity and Production Expectations - Projected Capacity Growth: An estimated 600,000 to 700,000 tons of new electrolytic aluminum capacity is expected in 2026, with total production growth also around 700,000 tons [4][17] - Potential Capacity Ceiling: If all projects are initiated and maintain high operating rates, the capacity ceiling may be between 45.5 million to 46 million tons [17][29] Policy and Market Influences - Regulatory Changes: The industry is influenced by various policies, including supply-side reforms and energy consumption controls, which are driving a transition towards high-quality development [18] - Electricity Price Trends: Electricity prices are expected to stabilize or decrease slightly in 2026 due to increased use of green electricity, despite fluctuations in coal prices [14] Market Inventory and Demand - Current Inventory Levels: The market currently has relatively low aluminum ingot inventories, while raw material and finished product inventories for primary processing enterprises have increased [19] - Recycling Aluminum Growth: The development of recycled aluminum is projected to be significant, with targets of 11.5 million tons in 2025 and 18 million tons by 2030, reducing the need for new primary aluminum production [20] Future Risks and Considerations - Price Risks: The current high domestic aluminum prices may lead to concentrated reductions in positions, with potential price corrections if inventory levels exceed expectations and demand recovery is insufficient [35] - Global Economic Factors: The aluminum price is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and supply-side factors, particularly influenced by dual carbon policies and the need for increased aluminum alloying ratios [15][16] Conclusion The electrolytic aluminum industry is poised for growth in 2026, supported by favorable domestic conditions and ongoing policy reforms. However, careful monitoring of overseas supply dynamics and potential risks related to inventory and demand is essential for stakeholders in the sector.