大摩闭门会-中国制造业的主导地位、经济工作会议前瞻，以及韩元走弱的启示

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - China's Manufacturing Sector: China's global manufacturing export share is projected to increase from 15% to 16.5%, with an optimistic scenario reaching 18% due to increased R&D investment and a strong STEM talent pool, particularly in high-growth segments like electric vehicles [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Trade Dynamics: Despite US-China trade tensions, China has managed to maintain its position in the global manufacturing supply chain by increasing trade surpluses with other major economies, offsetting the trade deficit with the US, which has decreased to $165 billion [1][6]. - R&D and Innovation: China is no longer just replicating products from developed markets but is at the forefront of innovation, with R&D spending significantly increased and a high percentage of STEM graduates (41% of total graduates) [4]. - Electric Vehicle Market: China holds a 25% market share in the electric vehicle sector, while Japan only has 5%. In lithium-ion batteries, China commands approximately 54% of the global market share [5]. - Impact of US Legislation: The recent National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) does not explicitly mention Chinese suppliers, reducing immediate risks but still poses potential future challenges for Chinese CDMO companies [7]. Economic Projections - GDP Growth Expectations: The GDP target for China in 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with a focus on stabilizing domestic demand rather than aggressive stimulus measures. A one trillion RMB stimulus package will likely continue into early 2026 [8][9]. - Inflation Forecast: Inflation in South Korea is projected to remain around 2.1% in 2026, despite the recent depreciation of the Korean won, which has negative implications for inflation [11]. Additional Important Insights - Korean Won Dynamics: The Korean won has depreciated over 7.75% since July 2025, impacting export competitiveness and inflation. However, the positive effects of a weaker currency on exports have diminished over time [10]. - Government Policies in South Korea: The South Korean government is discussing legislative changes that could significantly affect capital flows, including revisions to dividend taxes and new frameworks for national pension funds [13]. - CDMO Supply Chain Strategies: CDMOs are diversifying their supply chains by establishing production bases in the US and Singapore to mitigate tariff and sanction risks, allowing them to serve markets in Asia, Europe, and North America effectively [2][14].