策略+医药 “春季躁动”看方向，医药细分谁先行

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the pharmaceutical industry and its performance in the context of the upcoming Spring Festival and the Two Sessions in China. The focus is on the investment opportunities within the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs and services [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - Market Performance: Historically, small-cap stocks such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National 2000 have shown a strong performance with a 90% excess win rate and a median excess return of approximately 3% from the New Year to the pre-Spring Festival period [1][2]. - Consumer Sector: The consumer sector has performed well with a 60% win rate in Q1, particularly peaking at 67% in March, making it the top performer among major styles [2]. - Pharmaceutical Sector: Despite recent adjustments, the pharmaceutical sector had a notable performance in February with a 73% excess win rate and a median excess return of 1.1%, ranking it among the top ten in the Shenwan primary industry [1][2]. - Investment Opportunities: During the Spring Rally, segments such as innovative drugs, medical devices, and traditional Chinese medicine are highlighted as key areas for investment due to their growth potential and strong domestic demand [1][5][6]. Additional Important Insights - Long-term Outlook: By 2026, the pharmaceutical innovation sector is expected to benefit from an engineer dividend, enhancing research efficiency, cost, and speed. The innovative drug market is seen as entering a long-term growth phase, with projections indicating that by 2030, the revenue and profit share from pharmaceutical innovation could rise significantly [2][7]. - CRO and Life Sciences: Since 2025, there has been a recovery in demand for Contract Research Organizations (CRO) and upstream life sciences, with a strong rebound anticipated in 2026, particularly in preclinical CROs [8][9]. - Traditional Chinese Medicine: The traditional Chinese medicine sector is expected to recover normal growth by 2026, supported by policy changes and decreasing raw material costs, which will enhance profit growth [10]. - AI in Healthcare: The potential for AI in healthcare is significant, with applications in diagnostics and drug discovery. The need for milestone events to catalyze this sector's growth is emphasized [17][20]. Conclusion - The pharmaceutical industry is positioned for growth, with various segments offering unique investment opportunities. The overall sentiment is optimistic, particularly regarding innovative drugs and the recovery of traditional medicine, supported by favorable market conditions and policy changes.