固收-2026，信用低静态、高动态

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the credit bond market, particularly the dynamics of corporate bonds and the impact of regulatory changes on investment strategies in 2025 and 2026 [1][4][9]. Key Points and Arguments Credit Market Performance in 2025 - The credit market is expected to show a stair-step resistance to declines, with short-term credit bonds outperforming interest rate bonds [2]. - The yield curve for both interest rates and credit has undergone a reshaping process, with secondary perpetual bonds steepening significantly, approximately 10 basis points higher than medium-term notes [2]. - The market can be segmented into phases, with notable trends including a tightening of funds at the beginning of the year, stabilization in late March to early April, and a significant demand for technology innovation ETFs from May to July [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Net financing for credit bonds in 2025 is projected to exceed 3 trillion yuan, primarily driven by state-owned enterprise (SOE) bonds, while local government bonds are expected to continue a trend of reduced issuance, estimated at around 200 billion yuan [1][4]. - SOEs are showing clear signals of increasing leverage, with private enterprises experiencing a shift from negative to positive financing for the first time since 2021 [1][4][6]. - The demand side is dominated by wealth management products and funds, although the proportion of credit assets held by wealth management has decreased, leading to a slight decline in absolute holdings [1][4]. Outlook for 2026 - The credit bond market in 2026 is anticipated to face challenges, with both supply and demand expected to weaken, but the degree of supply weakening is not expected to match that of demand [5]. - The incremental issuance of local government bonds is expected to be minimal, around 200 to 300 billion yuan, which can be considered negligible [5]. - SOEs are expected to continue increasing leverage, indicating ongoing demand for financing [6]. Financial Bonds and Regulatory Impact - The supply of financial bonds, including Tier 2 capital bonds, is expected to be weaker in 2026 compared to 2025, primarily due to the regulatory timeline for TLAC compliance, which has a two-year buffer [7]. - The issuance of secondary perpetual bonds is projected to be low, with no significant hard issuance demand anticipated [8]. Impact of Redemption Regulations - New redemption regulations may lead to significant redemptions of short-term bond funds held by institutions, particularly affecting wealth management products that hold approximately 6 to 7 trillion yuan in pure bond funds [3][9]. - The net asset value management will shift wealth management products towards lower volatility assets, reducing the demand for long-duration credit bonds [10]. Investment Recommendations - It is advised to focus on medium to long-term credit assets with maturities of 3 to 5 years, while waiting for market adjustments before engaging in long-end bond trading opportunities [11]. Additional Important Insights - The overall market environment for 2026 is expected to be more challenging, with potential structural reshaping in the credit market [5]. - The performance of long-duration bonds, particularly secondary perpetual bonds, may be adversely affected due to reduced demand from institutional investors like insurance companies [11].