2026 年油气与天然气展望：原油及凝析油基本面进退维谷，美国天然气持续受益；上调 CNX 与 DVN 评级，下调 AR、OXY 与 RRC 评级

Summary of J.P. Morgan's 2026 E&P and Natural Gas Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Exploration & Production (E&P) sector, particularly oil and natural gas markets, highlighting supply-side risks for oil and liquids while noting a demand inflection for natural gas has finally arrived [1][25]. Key Insights Oil and Natural Gas Supply and Demand - Global oil stocks are projected to increase by 2.8 million barrels per day (MMBo/d) in 2026 without OPEC+ intervention or producer capital expenditure (capex) cuts [1]. - Oil supply is expected to outpace demand, with a forecasted increase of 1.1 MMBo/d in 2026 against a demand increase of 900 thousand barrels per day (MBo/d) [25]. - The oversupply of crude oil, combined with potential geopolitical easing, is expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices [1][25]. - Natural gas producers are anticipated to benefit from significant LNG export capacity build-out (+11 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by 2030), rising power demand, and coal-to-gas switching [1]. Company Ratings and Price Targets - Upgrades: - Devon Energy (DVN): Upgraded to Overweight (OW) from Neutral (N) based on attractive valuation and progress on a $1 billion business optimization plan [7][8]. - CNX Resources (CNX): Upgraded to Neutral (N) from Underweight (UW) due to improved valuation metrics [9]. - Downgrades: - Occidental Petroleum (OXY): Downgraded to Underweight (UW) from Neutral (N) due to high leverage and cautious oil fundamentals [10]. - Antero Resources (AR): Downgraded to Neutral (N) from Overweight (OW) based on valuation concerns and NGL fundamentals [10]. - Range Resources (RRC): Downgraded to Underweight (UW) from Neutral (N) reflecting relative valuation and cautious NGL outlook [10]. Financial Metrics - U.S. shale oil break-evens have declined by approximately $4 per barrel (7%) to $56 per barrel, while natural gas break-evens fell by about $0.30 per thousand cubic feet (8%) to $3.43 per Mcf [6][54]. - The report indicates that U.S. gas prices need to remain above $3.50 per Mcf to support demand growth, with a revised price range of $3.50-$4.50 per Mcf [6]. Market Performance - E&P stocks have increased by 5% year-to-date in 2025 but have underperformed the broader market, which saw a 14% increase in the energy sector [11]. - The energy sector's weighting in the S&P 500 has decreased from multi-year highs, indicating a challenging investment environment for oil-levered U.S. E&Ps [15]. Technological Advances - New technologies such as lightweight proppants and surfactants are expected to enhance well productivity and extend the plateau in U.S. oil supply, supporting lower breakevens [6]. Conclusion - The 2026 E&P outlook presents a mixed picture, with significant supply-side risks for oil and a more favorable demand scenario for natural gas. The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and strategic company positioning in navigating the evolving market landscape.