2026全球半导体设备：关注存储超级周期、先进逻辑和国产化机会

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The global semiconductor market is expected to accelerate growth in 2026, with the memory sector projected to grow nearly 40%, and the overall market size approaching $1 trillion. The semiconductor equipment market is anticipated to grow by 12%, with China’s market growing by 2% [1][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - Memory Sector Growth: The memory sector is expected to enter a super cycle in 2026, with a total growth rate of approximately 40%, driven by a 20% increase in both volume and price. DRAM expansion is strong, while NAND expansion is focused on existing capacity. Key timelines for Samsung's HBM4 and NAND expansion are critical [1][6]. - AI Chip Development Bottlenecks: CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) remains a bottleneck for AI chip development. The demand for EUV lithography machines is expected to rise due to advancements in 2nm technology and Samsung's 1C technology [1][5][16]. - Capital Expenditure Trends: Major players like TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are expected to continue significant capital expenditures, which will drive industry demand. SMIC and Hua Hong Group in mainland China are also at high investment levels [1][9]. - Chinese Semiconductor Localization: The localization rate of China's semiconductor industry is steadily increasing, reaching approximately 23% by Q3 2025, and expected to approach 30% by the end of 2026. Companies like Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei, and Tuojing Technology are likely to benefit from this trend [1][7][19]. Additional Important Insights - Performance of Semiconductor Equipment: The semiconductor equipment market is projected to grow by 12% in 2026, with a significant increase in capacity for back-end equipment expected to rise by 50-60% by the end of 2026. The front-end equipment sector is also expected to see growth due to rising demand for EUV lithography [1][5][13]. - Valuation of Memory Sector: The memory sector saw an average increase of 166% in 2025, with a reasonable valuation expected in 2026, with a PE ratio of 12 and a PB ratio of 2.8. Samsung's entry into Nvidia's HBM4 supply chain could significantly enhance its valuation [4][10][11]. - Market Dynamics in China: The Chinese semiconductor equipment market was valued at $12.6 billion in Q3 2025, with a 1% year-over-year growth. The localization rate is expected to rise to 29% by 2026, indicating strong domestic demand for advanced processes and memory expansion [18][19]. Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is poised for significant growth, particularly in the memory sector, with strong capital investments and increasing localization in China. Key players and technologies in both front-end and back-end equipment markets will be crucial for future developments and investment opportunities.