如何看待猪价与产能分歧

Summary of the Conference Call on the Swine Industry Industry Overview - The swine industry is experiencing significant losses in 2025, with self-breeding operations facing a theoretical loss of 200 RMB per head and fattening pig losses ranging from 270 to 300 RMB per head. The average price of pigs has dropped from 15-16 RMB per kilogram at the beginning of the year to 11-11.5 RMB per kilogram, hitting a low of around 10 RMB in early October [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Price and Production Capacity - Official data indicates a decline in the number of breeding sows since July, but third-party monitoring shows that production capacity remained stable from July to September, suggesting limited effectiveness in reducing capacity. It is expected that the number of pigs slaughtered will be affected in the second half of 2026 [1][4]. - The average weight of pigs traded nationwide is approximately 124.59 kg, which is lower than the same period in previous years. The slaughtering rate of enterprises is around 41%, down from over 50% last year, indicating weak consumer demand [7][8]. Cost Structure and Responses - The domestic breeding cost is concentrated between 12-12.5 RMB per kilogram, with some leading companies managing to keep costs below 12 RMB. The current losses have led some medium-sized breeders to extend breeding cycles and use lower-quality feed, while smallholders are adjusting biosecurity measures without significant capacity reduction [5][16]. - Most smallholders are expected to withstand losses until the Spring Festival, aided by credit sales and discounts from feed service companies, which alleviate financial pressure [2][17]. Market Expectations - The overall market situation in 2025 is expected to be weaker than in 2023, with predictions of a gradual reduction in pig slaughtering volumes starting in July and August 2026. However, a supply-demand imbalance is necessary for price increases, with anticipated average prices for 2026 ranging from 12 to 12.5 RMB per kilogram [8][19]. - The price forecast for early 2025 remains low, around 11 RMB, with expectations of a significant drop post-Spring Festival [9][10][11]. Inventory and Weight Changes - The decline in average weight by 2 kg is considered normal as producers aim to minimize losses when prices fall below cost. However, the reduction primarily affects larger pigs awaiting slaughter, and it will take time to lower the overall inventory across all age groups [13][14]. Capacity Reduction and Future Trends - Group companies and medium-sized farms are slightly reducing capacity, but the overall decline is limited. Most smallholders are not engaging in significant capacity reduction due to expectations of better market conditions around traditional consumption peaks [15][18]. - The swine industry still has room for cost reduction, particularly in production efficiency and feed alternatives. The use of high-quality breeding stock and improved feed conversion ratios could significantly lower costs [21]. Regional Insights - The free-range breeding model in Shandong shows advantages such as shorter cycles and lower capital costs, but it also faces risks related to procurement and management capabilities. The optimal scale for operations is between 1,000 to 5,000 heads [22]. Cost Variance and Market Dynamics - Cost variance is expected to narrow as production methods converge, particularly in free-range systems. The differences between large group farms and smallholders are also diminishing as operational scales become more uniform across regions [23]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the industry is cautious, with most companies opting to maintain current scales rather than expand, reflecting a wait-and-see approach in light of uncertain market conditions [19].