中央经济工作会议后，2026年地产怎么看？

Summary of Conference Call on Real Estate Market Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the real estate market in China and Hong Kong, focusing on policy changes and market trends for 2025 and beyond [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Policy Direction and Stability - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, indicating that the goal of stopping the decline in 2024 was not fully achieved. The focus has shifted to long-term stability strategies [2][3]. - Future policies will likely include city-specific measures, inventory reduction, and supply optimization to stabilize the market. This includes encouraging the purchase of existing properties for affordable housing [3][4]. 2. Potential Policy Measures - Possible measures may involve relaxing restrictions on home purchases and loans, as well as using monetary tools like interest rate cuts to lower mortgage costs [4][6]. - The implementation of a mortgage interest subsidy policy is anticipated, although not explicitly mentioned during the conference. This could help reduce home buying costs [6][7]. 3. Urban Renewal and Housing Fund Reforms - Urban renewal efforts will focus on high-quality improvements, enhancing living conditions, and transforming old neighborhoods into attractive communities [5]. - Reforms to the housing provident fund will expand coverage to flexible employment workers and allow funds to be used for renovations, improving accessibility and efficiency [5]. 4. Hong Kong Real Estate Market Trends - The Hong Kong real estate market is in a recovery phase, with private residential prices increasing by 0.4% month-on-month and 1.1% year-on-year in October. The market has seen a continuous rise for five months [8]. - Despite a 27% year-on-year decline in new residential transactions, the cumulative transaction volume for new and second-hand homes has increased by approximately 17% [8]. - Rental prices for private residences in Hong Kong have shown a year-on-year increase of 4%, with most residential properties generating positive cash flow due to rental yields exceeding mortgage rates [8]. 5. Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Retail sales in Hong Kong grew by 7% year-on-year in October, indicating a gradual recovery in the retail sector [3][8]. - The future trajectory of the Hong Kong market is heavily dependent on the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, which could further influence mortgage rates and market recovery [8]. Additional Important Insights - The effectiveness of mortgage interest subsidies, such as those implemented in Changchun, shows that while they can boost transaction volumes, they may not significantly prevent price declines [7]. - The focus on urban renewal and housing fund reforms indicates a shift towards improving living standards and accessibility in the housing market, which could have long-term positive effects [5][6]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the real estate market, highlighting the anticipated policy changes and market trends for 2025.