有色金属：行情延续，宏观情绪仍是主导 (1)

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals market is significantly influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with the Federal Reserve's easing policies being a key driver. Despite uncertainties in future interest rate cuts, a liquidity-rich environment is expected to support rising commodity prices, similar to the market performance from 2019 to 2021 [1][5] - Concerns regarding AI investments and interest rate hikes in Japan have emerged, but liquidity easing reduces de-leveraging risks, making the likelihood of a bubble burst low in the short term. If Japan's interest rates exceed expectations, it may create downward pressure, but any pullback could present a good investment opportunity due to supply-demand imbalances and demand recovery expected by 2026 [1][6] Precious Metals Market - Gold is not advisable to short due to geopolitical factors, weakening of the dollar credit system, and increased central bank purchases. Historically, gold experiences two phases of price increases during easing cycles, and it is expected to rise post-RMP implementation [1][7] - Silver may face short-term pullback pressure but is expected to maintain a long-term upward cycle due to supply shortages and its industrial properties. The market for silver has been in a state of shortage for the past few years, and its investment demand is likely to increase during economic recovery [1][8] Price Projections - Gold prices are projected to reach $4,800 by 2026, driven by liquidity easing and rising inflation. Companies like Lingbao Gold, through acquisitions, are expected to see their valuations rise to 15-20 times [1][9] - The copper market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand, with low inventories. High copper prices are suppressing demand, but liquidity easing is expected to mitigate negative impacts. The copper price is projected to be between $11,000 and $12,000 in the first half of 2026, making valuations of related A-share and H-share companies attractive [2][11] Aluminum Market - The aluminum market shows a favorable supply-demand balance, with profit margins exceeding 5,500 yuan per ton. The current valuation levels are considered attractive for investment, especially as the U.S. easing cycle lowers dividend yield requirements [4][12] Lithium Market - The lithium carbonate market is expected to experience a slight shortage in 2025, with a total supply of around 1.6 million tons. In 2026, a slight surplus is anticipated, with prices sensitive to rapid increases in supply. The price may reach between 90,000 to 100,000 yuan, but rapid price increases could stimulate supply and create pressure [13][14] Small Metals: Tungsten and Cobalt - Tungsten and cobalt are expected to maintain a trend of price increases due to ongoing shortages. Tungsten's price is unlikely to drop significantly due to its importance in technology and military applications, while cobalt prices may rise due to export quota issues from the Democratic Republic of Congo [15] Copper Foil and Aluminum Foil Processing Fees - Recent surveys indicate that processing fees for copper and aluminum foils in lithium battery materials have bottomed out and are beginning to recover. This sector is highlighted as an important area for investors, with overall supply-demand dynamics remaining balanced [16][17]