全球光模块：总体潜在市场解析；AI 服务器基础设施扩张推动 800G1.6T 需求增长Global Optical transceivers_ TAM introduced; rising 800G _ 1.6T driven by growing AI servers infrastructure

Summary of Global Optical Transceivers Conference Call Industry Overview - The global optical transceiver market is projected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing demand for AI server infrastructure and the transition from copper to fiber optics [1][2] - The market is expected to reach US$24 billion in 2025, US$30 billion in 2026, and US$37 billion in 2027, with the 800G+ segment growing at an impressive 87% CAGR [2] Key Insights - Adoption Trends: - 1.6T optical transceivers are expected to ramp up adoption in 2026-2027, while 3.2T will start adoption in 2027 [1] - The penetration of silicon photonics (SiPh) solutions is anticipated to increase, reaching 60% for 800G, 80% for 1.6T, and 100% for 3.2T optical transceivers by 2028 [2] - Market Demand: - The demand for optical transceivers is expected to be driven by the AI server infrastructure cycle, with ASIC chips projected to account for 40% of total AI chips by 2025 and 45% by 2026 [1] - Shipment volumes for 800G and 1.6T are expected to grow from 36 million and 5 million units in 2026 to 56 million and 12 million units in 2027, respectively [2][17] - Supply Chain Insights: - Companies rated as "Buy" include optical transceiver module leaders Innolight and Eoptolink, CW laser manufacturers Landmark and VPEC, and data center switch provider Ruijie [3] Financial Projections - The global optical module total addressable market (TAM) is projected to grow from US$24.1 billion in 2025 to US$36.8 billion in 2027, with significant contributions from the 800G+ segment [2][8] - The average selling price (ASP) for optical transceivers is expected to decline year-over-year, with a notable drop for 800G and 1.6T products [14][15] Additional Considerations - The transition to high-speed connections is expected to accelerate the adoption of SiPh solutions due to their cost advantages over traditional EML modules [18] - The overall demand for optical transceivers is projected to reach 392 million units in 2025, increasing to 437 million units by 2028, with traditional applications declining from 89% to 66% of total shipments [16] - The market is witnessing a shift towards higher-speed products, with 800G becoming the mainstream specification for large-scale data centers [17] Conclusion - The optical transceiver market is poised for rapid growth, driven by advancements in AI infrastructure and the increasing adoption of high-speed optical solutions. Key players in the supply chain are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, making it a promising area for investment.