中国金融 - 从中央经济工作会议看金融：净息差稳定、风险与信贷需求-China Financials-Financials Read Across From CEWC stable NIM, risks and credit demand

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Financials - View: Attractive for the financial sector in 2026, with stable loan yield and net interest margin (NIM) expected due to modest rate cuts and rational loan pricing [5][2] Core Insights 1. Loan Yield and NIM Stability: The financial sector is likely to experience stable loan yields and NIM in 2026, supported by modest rate cuts and rational loan pricing as the government shifts focus away from quantitative targets for total social financing (TSF) and M2 [2][8] 2. Credit Demand Support: Credit demand is expected to be cushioned to prevent a sharp decline, aided by government bond issuance and infrastructure investments, which will be more balanced in terms of efficiency and scale due to higher project selection standards [2][3] 3. Risk Control Focus: Continued emphasis on risk control across various sectors, including manufacturing, property, local debt, and smaller financial institutions, is anticipated to benefit financial stocks. The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) aims to reduce the number of mid-to-small financial institutions, potentially benefiting the consolidation of smaller banks and brokers [3][8] Additional Important Points 1. Policy Shift: The shift from timely rate and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in 2024 to a more flexible use of policy tools in 2025 indicates a continued commitment to a modestly loose monetary policy [8] 2. Infrastructure Credit Demand: The use of central government-led investments and policy bank facilities is suggested to cushion infrastructure credit demand, which is crucial for maintaining economic stability [8] 3. Anti-Involution Efforts: Ongoing efforts to combat anti-involution are expected to help slow the accumulation of credit risk in manufacturing sectors, reinforcing the importance of risk management [8] Conclusion The insights from the conference call indicate a cautiously optimistic outlook for the China financial sector, with stable yields, controlled credit demand, and a focus on risk management as key themes for 2026. The government's strategic shifts in policy and investment are expected to play a significant role in shaping the financial landscape.