美国股票策略 2026 年展望：持续但波动的牛市-US Equity Strategy 2026 Outlook A Persistent But Volatile Bull

Summary of US Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the US equity market, particularly the S&P 500 index and its performance outlook for 2026, with a target set at 7700 based on projected earnings of $320 per index share [1][2][21]. Core Insights and Arguments - Earnings Projections: The base case for the S&P 500 is set at 7700, with a bull case of 8300 and a bear case of 5700, reflecting varying expectations for earnings growth and valuation [2][8][21]. - AI Impact: The ongoing integration of AI is expected to drive productivity improvements, shifting focus from AI enablers to adopters, which may lead to increased performance dispersion among stocks [3][12][71]. - Sector Performance: Strong corporate earnings are anticipated, particularly in Value, Cyclical, and Small/Mid Cap sectors, with growth estimates expected to exceed consensus [4][51]. - Valuation Risks: The current high valuation presents a challenge, with a slight expected multiple compression from 25x to 24x. Factors such as lower 10-year yields and a supportive Federal Reserve are crucial for maintaining valuation levels [5][57][59]. Additional Important Points - Market Volatility: The fourth year of the current bull market is expected to bring bouts of volatility, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and potential geopolitical developments [9][20][71]. - Earnings Growth Dynamics: The growth cohort needs to consistently outperform expectations to support valuations, while broader market participation in earnings growth is anticipated as headwinds dissipate [51][54]. - Defensive and Cyclical Sectors: The defensive sector has shown negative revisions, while cyclical sectors are expected to recover as tariff concerns ease [37][51]. - Geopolitical Considerations: The report does not specifically account for geopolitical developments in its base case, acknowledging the unpredictability of such events [20][71]. - Investor Sentiment: The current market sentiment is described as euphoric, which historically correlates with premium valuations and potential for corrective phases [70][71]. Conclusion - The outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for strong earnings growth driven by AI and sectoral broadening. However, the high valuation and potential for volatility necessitate careful stock selection and monitoring of macroeconomic indicators [71].