中国房地产 - 4000 亿元按揭补贴China Property-Rmb400bn mortgage subsidies

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Sector Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the China Property sector, focusing on potential mortgage subsidies and their implications for the market. Key Points and Arguments 1. Mortgage Subsidies Speculation: - Market speculation suggests that China may provide Rmb400 billion in mortgage subsidies, potentially effective from early 2026 for purchases made between September 1, 2025, and August 31, 2026. The subsidy is speculated to be 1%, with a possibility of up to 2% in higher-risk areas [1][3][4]. 2. Impact on Homebuyers: - The average mortgage rates are currently 3.0% for first homes and 3.3% for second homes. With a 1% subsidy, effective rates could drop to 2.0%-2.3%, aligning closer to average rental yields of ~1.5% in tier-1 cities and ~2% in tier-2 cities. This could reduce monthly payments by Rmb694-1,143 for homes valued at Rmb1-2 million, translating to total savings of Rmb25,000 to 41,100 over three years [3][9]. 3. Market Reaction: - Following the speculation, shares of Vanke surged by 13%, while Sunac and Jinmao rose by 9%. In contrast, large-cap SOEs like CR Land and COLI saw only mild increases of 0-1%, indicating that excitement was primarily driven by short covering rather than strong investor confidence in the policy [1][13]. 4. Long-term Effectiveness: - The effectiveness of the subsidies is questioned, as the core issue remains weak expectations for home prices. Secondary home prices have been declining at a rate of ~1.5% monthly, which could negate the benefits of the subsidies shortly after implementation [4][12]. 5. Policy Timing: - The next potential policy window for discussing housing market support is the CEWC in the next 1-2 weeks. If no new narrative emerges, the next opportunity for announcements would be during the Two Sessions in March 2026 [5]. 6. Retail Sales Impact: - The mortgage subsidies, if fully utilized, could represent 0.8% of China's retail sales, suggesting that the savings from mortgage repayments may have a more significant impact on retail sales than on the housing market itself [5]. Additional Important Information - Historical Accuracy of Speculation: The historical accuracy of market speculation regarding housing policies has been around 40%, indicating a level of skepticism regarding the reliability of such forecasts [1][6]. - Local Subsidy Examples: Cities like Wuhan and Changchun have already implemented similar subsidies with caps ranging from Rmb20,000 to 40,000 [8]. - Share Price Performance: The report includes detailed share price performance data for various companies in the sector, highlighting the mixed reactions to the speculation [13][19]. Conclusion - The potential introduction of mortgage subsidies in the China Property sector has generated significant market speculation and short-term excitement among investors. However, the long-term effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain, primarily due to ongoing declines in home prices and the need for stronger government commitment to stabilize the market.