中国每周市场前瞻：市场持平；中央经济工作会议通稿显露出温和促增长政策立场；11 月 CPI 通胀回升、出口增速反弹

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the Chinese market, particularly focusing on the performance of the MXCN and CSI300 indices, which are key indicators of the Chinese equity market [2][11][13]. Core Insights and Arguments - Market Performance: The MXCN and CSI300 indices gained 31% and 16% year-to-date (YTD) in USD terms, ranking in the 81st and 65th percentiles respectively over the past 30 years [11][14]. - Earnings Growth: The I/B/E/S consensus estimates for EPS growth in 2025/26 are 4%/13% for MXCN and 15%/14% for CSI300, indicating a positive outlook for earnings in the coming years [10]. - Sector Performance: Materials, Pharma, and Retailing sectors performed the best YTD, while Energy and Consumer Services lagged behind [18][19]. - Inflation Trends: CPI inflation rose to 0.7% year-on-year in November, driven by higher food prices, while PPI inflation decreased to -2.2% year-on-year [2]. Regulatory and Policy Developments - The Central Economic Work Conference indicated a modestly pro-growth policy stance, suggesting potential easing of leverage limits for high-quality brokers [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans for licensing control on steel exports, reflecting ongoing regulatory adjustments in key industries [2]. Investment Flows - Southbound Connect recorded its first week of outflows since May, totaling -US$0.4 billion, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2][5]. - Active mutual fund allocations in China globally moderated to 6.9%, placing it in the 18th percentile over the past decade [25]. Additional Insights - H vs A Shares: The A-H rotation model suggests that H shares are likely to outperform A shares in the next three months, driven by favorable economic growth and macro policy conditions [32]. - US-China Relations: The US-China Relations Barometer stands at 61, indicating a relatively stable relationship, which could influence market sentiment [34]. - Retail Sentiment: The retail sentiment proxy for A-shares is not stretched compared to previous periods of strong sentiment, suggesting room for growth [41]. Conclusion - The Chinese market shows signs of recovery with positive earnings growth forecasts and sector performance, although regulatory changes and inflation trends warrant close monitoring. The investment landscape is shifting, with notable outflows and changing fund allocations, indicating evolving investor sentiment.