中国经济活动与政策追踪 - 12 月 12 日-China Economic Activity and Policy Tracker_ December 12

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Economic Activity and various macroeconomic indicators, including consumption, production, investment, and market policies [1][2]. Consumption and Mobility - Property Transactions: The daily property transaction volume in the primary market across 30 cities has decreased over the last two weeks and remains below last year's levels [3][8]. - Traffic Congestion: Traffic congestion levels are reported to be below those of the previous year, indicating reduced mobility [9][11]. - Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence has remained depressed as of October, reflecting ongoing economic concerns [14]. - Auto Sales: Total auto sales volume has edged lower in November, falling below the levels seen in 2024, while new energy vehicle (NEV) sales have increased and remain above 2024 levels [15][19]. Production and Investment - Steel Demand: There has been a decrease in steel demand, which is currently below last year's levels [22]. - Steel Production: Steel production has also fallen over the last two weeks, remaining below last year's levels [25]. - Coal Consumption: Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces is reported to be below last year's levels [26]. - Local Government Bonds: RMB 4.5 trillion in local government special bonds have been issued out of a total quota of RMB 4.6 trillion for 2025, indicating a high issuance rate of 98.8% of the annual quota [28][29]. Other Macro Activity - Port Activity: Official port container throughput has decreased over the last two weeks but remains above the levels from a year ago [41]. - Freight Volume: The freight volume of departing ships at 20 major ports has increased over the last two weeks, surpassing last year's levels [44]. Markets and Policy - Interbank Repo Rates: These rates have remained largely stable over the last two weeks, indicating a steady liquidity environment [49]. - Oil Demand: The nowcast indicates that China's oil demand has declined to 17.7 million barrels per day in the latest reading [51]. - Currency Movements: The Chinese Yuan (CNY) has appreciated against the USD but depreciated slightly against the CFETS basket in recent weeks [56]. - Policy Announcements: Key macro policy announcements since September include a pro-growth policy stance suggested by the Central Economic Work Conference and measures to promote consumption and private investment [57]. Additional Insights - The report highlights a shift in data sources for traffic congestion from Gaode map to Baidu map, which may affect the comparability of data going forward [11]. - The "Others" category in local government bond proceeds spending has become the largest share, potentially indicating a focus on repayment for corporate arrears and delayed salaries [36]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in China.