全球存储 - 2026 年存储超级周期的五大关键点与个股思路-Global Memory Tech-Top-5 checkpoints for 2026 memory super-cycle and stock ideas

Summary of Global Memory Technology Conference Call Industry Overview - Memory Market Growth: The global memory market is projected to experience significant growth, with DRAM sales expected to reach US$196 billion in 2026, representing a 51% year-over-year increase. NAND sales are anticipated to hit US$114 billion, reflecting a 45% increase [1][10]. - ASP Increases: Average Selling Prices (ASP) for DRAM and NAND are expected to rise by 33% and 26% year-over-year, respectively, contributing more to revenue than bit growth, which is projected at 14% for DRAM and 15% for NAND [1][10]. Key Points 1. 2026 Super-Cycle: The memory market is expected to enter a super-cycle similar to the 1990s, driven by AI advancements and a prolonged upturn, with sales growth continuing into 2027 [1][10]. 2. HBM Demand Growth: High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) demand is projected to grow by 50-100% annually, driven by new GPU and ASIC technologies, while wafer capacity growth is expected to remain below 50% [2]. 3. Supply Constraints: High capital expenditures (capex) are anticipated, with SK Hynix's capex estimated at W23 trillion in 2025 and W35 trillion in 2026. However, productivity is expected to be low, leading to a production volume increase of less than 20% year-over-year for DRAM and NAND [3]. 4. Sustainable High ASP: Despite spot price corrections, conventional DRAM prices are expected to stabilize between US$10-15, indicating a potential upside of over 50% for contract prices [4]. 5. Top Investment Picks: SK Hynix is identified as the top pick in the global memory sector, with Samsung Electronics and Nanya Tech also recommended. EPS estimates and price objectives for all three companies have been raised due to favorable pricing conditions [5][6]. Company-Specific Insights - SK Hynix: Projected operating profit for 4Q25 and 2026 is W16 trillion and W77 trillion, respectively. The new price objective is set at W900,000, up from W800,000, with a 23% increase in EPS estimates based on higher DRAM ASP [6]. - Samsung Electronics: Expected operating profit for 4Q25 and 2026 is W15 trillion and W76 trillion. The new price objective is W150,000, up from W140,000, with a 17% increase in EPS estimates [6]. - Nanya Tech: Benefiting from legacy DRAM shortages, the new price objective is NT$200, up from NT$178, with a 25% increase in EPS estimates [6]. Additional Insights - Inventory Levels: As of December 2025, both DRAM and NAND inventories are at 3-4 weeks, lower than the normal 1-2 months, indicating tight supply conditions [12]. - Utilization Rates: Memory chipmakers' fabs are fully utilized, excluding old idle capacity, suggesting strong demand [14]. - Sales Mix: The sales mix for DRAM is increasingly driven by server and smartphone applications, with servers expected to account for 55% of DRAM sales by 2027 [17]. Conclusion The global memory market is poised for substantial growth driven by technological advancements and increasing demand across various applications. Investment opportunities are favorable for key players like SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Nanya Tech, with a focus on ASP increases and supply constraints shaping the market dynamics.