大摩：经济缺口学：回归数据依赖：什么可能导致美联储进一步降息

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the labor market and inflation trends. Key Points and Arguments - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [3] - Future rate cuts will be more data-dependent, with expectations of two additional rate cuts during the forecast period [3][2] - Powell expresses confidence in a decline in inflation, predicting it will return to target levels by mid-2026, contingent on the resolution of tariff impacts [3] - Concerns are raised regarding a cooling labor market, with potential revisions indicating a negative employment growth trend since April, averaging a loss of about 20,000 jobs per month [3][6] Employment Data Insights - The November employment report was delayed due to a government shutdown, which affected data collection and resulted in a break in the data series [4][5] - The report includes employment data for both October and November, along with the unemployment rate for November [4] - For October, a net loss of approximately 30,000 jobs is expected due to layoffs at Dodge, while November is projected to see an increase of 50,000 jobs, assuming no large-scale federal layoffs occur [6] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to around 4.6%, influenced by a slowdown in the private sector and delayed resignations [6] Impact of Government Shutdown - The government shutdown disrupted household surveys, leading to uncertainties in classifying workers as unemployed or employed [7] - The extended time for businesses to submit data may enhance the reliability of wage data, making initial reports more accurate and less subject to revisions [7] Labor Market Dynamics - Delayed resignation plans may have partially reflected in previous months' data, indicating some economic slack without signaling a complete halt in private demand [8] - The Federal Reserve must assess whether any rise in unemployment due to delayed resignations is temporary or a persistent issue [8] Conclusion - The Federal Reserve's future decisions on interest rates will heavily rely on labor market data and inflation trends, with a cautious approach to potential economic shifts [2][8]