大摩：美联储下一步动向及市场反应

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the economy and markets, particularly focusing on interest rates, inflation, and labor market conditions. Key Points and Arguments Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates will heavily depend on future economic data rather than pre-set risk assessments, as emphasized by Powell [1] - Powell ruled out the possibility of future rate hikes, indicating a shift towards data dependency for future monetary policy decisions [2] - The Fed is expected to lower rates again in January 2026, with potential further cuts in April 2026 to support the labor market, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25% [1][4] Labor Market Conditions - Technical adjustments in the labor market may lead to downward revisions in employment data, including annual benchmark revisions and immigration controls, contributing to uncertainty in labor market conditions [2] - It is estimated that employment growth in 2025 could be about 60,000 jobs lower than previously reported due to these adjustments [2] - Despite these adjustments, the unemployment rate remains relatively stable, suggesting that lower interest rates may be beneficial for managing associated risks [2] Inflation and Tariff Impact - Tariff-related inflation is expected to peak in the first quarter of 2025, with year-on-year inflation rates slightly above 3% before beginning to decline [3] - The inflationary effects of tariffs are considered temporary, with expectations that inflation will remain above the Fed's 2% target until 2027 as a trade-off for maintaining the labor market [3] Long-term Interest Rates and Dollar Trends - The current yield on 10-year Treasury bonds is close to 4%, with expectations for a moderate decline in the first half of 2026 as the Fed continues to lower policy rates [5] - The unusual situation of long-term bond yields being significantly higher than the Fed's policy rate is expected to attract more investors, preventing a substantial rise in long-term rates [5] - The trend of dollar depreciation that began in January is anticipated to continue in the first half of the year, with a potential rebound in the second half [6] Other Important Insights - The internal divisions within the FOMC regarding monetary policy decisions highlight the complexity of the current economic environment [2] - Powell's confidence in managing future economic trends through policy adjustments reflects a proactive approach to potential economic challenges [2]