固收-2026，乘风而起，转债新篇

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily focus on the convertible bond market in China, particularly for the year 2025 and outlook for 2026. The performance of various sectors, including new energy, chemicals, and metals, is highlighted. Key Points and Arguments 2025 Market Performance - The A-share market experienced phased fluctuations in 2025, with small-cap stocks outperforming the CSI 300 index. The China Convertible Bond Index rose nearly 20%, comparable to the CSI 300's performance [1][3]. - The convertible bond market saw a significant valuation increase, with median prices maintaining historical highs. Approximately 400-500 convertible bonds appreciated throughout the year [1][5]. - The supply of convertible bonds was weak, with new issuance slightly above the previous year but still at historical lows. The total net reduction exceeded 150 billion, with AAA-rated bonds accounting for over 100 billion [1][6][7]. Demand Dynamics - Demand for convertible bonds increased, with rapid growth in convertible bond ETFs and significant accumulation by public funds. However, insurance institutions reduced their holdings [1][7]. - The market is expected to face a tight balance between supply and demand in 2026, with a high maturity scale but new issuance plans accelerating [1][8]. Economic Outlook for 2026 - The global economy is anticipated to show resilience in external demand, with macro policies expected to stimulate consumption. Fixed asset investment and manufacturing growth may improve, enhancing macroeconomic visibility [1][10][11][12]. - The domestic demand is expected to lead economic growth, with policies promoting consumption anticipated to take effect in 2026 [1][11]. Sector-Specific Insights - The convertible bond market is expected to remain optimistic, with a focus on sectors such as new energy, chemicals, aquaculture, steel, and metals. Small-cap, low-rated, high-priced, and equity-sensitive convertible bonds are recommended [2][14]. - The performance of the convertible bond market in 2026 is likely to mirror the 2015-2016 bull market, driven by limited new supply and upward price trends [1][14]. Investment Strategies - Suggested strategies include focusing on convertible bonds benefiting from anti-involution policies and those showing performance inflection points, such as in the steel and chemical sectors [1][15]. - Attention should also be given to sectors aligned with the 14th Five-Year Plan, including aerospace, deep-sea technology, and AI-related fields [1][15][16]. Risks and Considerations - The potential for strong redemption risks should be monitored, and strategies that do not rely on strong redemptions are advised [1][14]. Additional Important Content - The notes detail the four phases of market performance in 2025, highlighting the resilience of the convertible bond market during downturns and the significant appreciation during bullish phases [3][4]. - The notes also emphasize the importance of macroeconomic fundamentals in analyzing the equity market, noting the impact of tariff shocks on export growth [1][9].