12月FOMC之后，还有哪些看点？

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly in the context of interest rate adjustments and inflation expectations. Core Insights and Arguments - Divergence in Federal Reserve's Rate Path: There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts, with the dot plot indicating one cut each in 2026 and 2027, but lacking clear forward guidance. The market has largely priced in these expectations, leading to a muted response in U.S. Treasury yields [1][2] - New Economic Balance in 2026: The U.S. economy is expected to reach a new equilibrium in 2026, with GDP growth projected at approximately 2% and inflation around 3%. This reflects efforts to manage high inflation and economic pressures, with AI developments potentially alleviating labor market strains [6][8] - Fragmented Rate Cuts Strategy: The Federal Reserve may adopt a fragmented approach to rate cuts, adjusting based on economic data and conditions rather than implementing consecutive cuts. This strategy introduces uncertainty into monetary policy [7][8] - Inflation Stability: Inflation is anticipated to remain relatively stable but above historical levels in 2026, with total demand not expected to be particularly strong. The development of AI technology is expected to bring structural changes to the economy, influencing supply dynamics [8][9] - Fiscal Deficit Management: The U.S. fiscal deficit is not expected to spiral out of control, with increased tariff revenues playing a significant role. This is likely to have a limited impact on monetary and fiscal policy in the coming year [4][9] - Impact of New Fed Chair: While the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair may have marginal effects on policy decisions, the macroeconomic fundamentals will remain the primary determinants of monetary policy direction [3][5] Additional Important Insights - Long-term Treasury Bonds: Holding long-term U.S. Treasury bonds is considered a prudent investment strategy, given the current yield curve dynamics and the expected limited rate cuts in the near term [11] - Dollar Stability in 2026: The U.S. dollar is projected to maintain a passive stability in 2026, influenced by the independent monetary policies of various economies and the complexities of exchange rate dynamics amid de-globalization [12] - Gold and AI Investment Outlook: Gold is viewed as a risk asset with potential for long-term investment value, particularly if the stock market performs well. The AI sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory, despite potential short-term challenges [13][14][15] - Asset Allocation for Investors: For ordinary investors, a recommended strategy is to allocate 80% of assets to fixed-income securities for lower risk, while 20% can be directed towards more aggressive investments, adjusting based on market performance [16][17]