SIASUN(SZ:300024)2025-12-15 01:55Summary of Horizon Robotics Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Horizon Robotics - Industry: Intelligent driving solutions in China Key Points Market Penetration and Growth - The penetration rate of urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) is expected to accelerate in 2026, following rapid growth in highway NOA in 2025, with Horizon Robotics capturing over 40% of the highway NOA market by 2025 [1] - The company is expanding its HSD (High-Performance Driving) product matrix targeting mainstream economy vehicles priced above 100,000 RMB, which is anticipated to increase its market share in urban NOA [1] - Total revenue is projected to reach 15 billion RMB by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 58% from 2024 to 2028 [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue estimates for fiscal years ending December are adjusted as follows: - FY25E: 3,269 million RMB (down 3.7% from previous estimate) - FY26E: 5,517 million RMB (down 5.6% from previous estimate) [2] - The company expects to achieve profitability by 2028, with total revenue reaching 15 billion RMB [9][24] Product Launch and Performance - Two HSD solutions launched in Q4 2025 have shown strong activation rates, with 12,000 units activated within two weeks of launch [5] - HSD600 and HSD300 are designed for vehicles priced above 130,000 RMB and are expected to achieve shipments of 25,000 units in 2025 and 461,000 units in 2026, respectively [5] - The company aims to cover approximately 70% of new energy vehicles with its urban NOA solutions starting in 2026 [5] Investor Sentiment and Competitive Landscape - Investor feedback indicates a consensus on the optimistic outlook for the acceleration of intelligent driving feature penetration, with Horizon Robotics seen as a key beneficiary [5] - Concerns exist regarding valuation, with the current stock price reflecting a 13x projected sales multiple for 2027, and increasing competition from third-party suppliers like Momenta [5] - Despite competition, Horizon's market leadership and unique technology position it for a valuation premium [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - The stock price has rebounded 24% since November 21, outperforming the Hang Seng Tech Index, which rose 3% during the same period [5] - The target price for the stock is set at 13 HKD by December 2026, based on a 19x forward price-to-sales ratio, which is approximately 79% higher than its Hong Kong peers [9][25] Risks - Key risks affecting the rating include intensified competition, potential order shortfalls due to demand shrinkage or project delays, and disruptions in R&D or supply chains [26] Financial Metrics - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth, with a projected revenue CAGR of 54% from 2024 to 2027 [24] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to improve significantly by 2028, with total revenue reaching 15 billion RMB [9][24] Additional Insights - The company is positioned as a leading supplier of intelligent driving solutions in China, with a product portfolio that includes chips and algorithm suites for entry-level ADAS and higher-level scenarios [24] - Emerging demands from robotaxi and other robotic scenarios are expected to provide long-term growth potential for Horizon Robotics [24] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the company's growth trajectory, financial forecasts, product performance, and market positioning.