美联储为何将在2026年大幅降息

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its monetary policy, particularly in the context of the upcoming 2026 elections and the potential appointment of a new Fed Chair. Core Points and Arguments - Federal Reserve Chair Candidates: The list of candidates for the new Fed Chair has narrowed down to five individuals, with Kevin Hassett being the most likely choice according to market speculation [1][3][4]. - Political Pressure for Rate Cuts: President Trump has expressed a desire for the new Fed Chair to lower interest rates, indicating that this will be a test of their capabilities [3][5]. - Current Economic Context: The Fed is currently operating under a tight monetary policy, with federal funds rates above neutral levels, which is slowing economic growth [5][6]. - Predictions for Rate Cuts: It is anticipated that the Fed will lower rates to neutral or even lower before the midterm elections in November 2026, with a target range of 2.75%-3.00% by September 2026 [10][20]. - Inflation Concerns: There are concerns that rate cuts could lead to higher inflation expectations, which may counteract the intended effects of lowering long-term rates [11][12]. - Impact of New Fed Chair: The new Fed Chair is expected to align closely with the White House's agenda, particularly if they are a loyal supporter of Trump, which could lead to a more coordinated monetary policy [18][24]. - Potential for Asset Purchases: If long-term rates rise unexpectedly, the Fed may consider large-scale asset purchases to manage the yield curve [15][25]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Political Dynamics: The potential for a majority of Trump loyalists on the Fed Board could significantly influence monetary policy decisions, especially if there are attempts to remove current board members [19][22][23]. - Economic Policy Coordination: The relationship between government policies aimed at controlling inflation and the Fed's monetary policy will be crucial, especially if inflation remains persistent [16][25]. - Market Reactions: The market's perception of the Fed's ability to achieve its inflation target will be closely tied to the actual rate cuts and the economic data leading up to the elections [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions and the political landscape influencing these decisions.