家电行业2026年度投资策略：出海+红利，优选龙头

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Home Appliance Industry Industry Overview - The home appliance industry is currently valued below the median level, with leading white goods companies like Gree, Midea, and Haier having valuations that have not exceeded 15 times earnings, indicating a high safety margin [1][3] - The dividend yield of the home appliance sector ranks fourth among 32 industries, with Gree at approximately 7%, Midea over 5%, and Haier exceeding 4% [1][4] Core Investment Themes for 2026 - The main investment themes for 2026 are expected to revolve around "going overseas" and "dividends," with dividends being a strategy that spans the next 2 to 5 years [1][5] - The cash dividend ratio in the home appliance industry is relatively high, placing it in the top third among 32 industries, despite its lower valuation [5] Cost Pressures and Market Dynamics - Rising copper prices have significantly impacted air conditioning costs, as copper accounts for 30% to 40% of air conditioning costs. However, the feasibility of replacing copper with aluminum is being studied to mitigate cost impacts [6] - The real estate market's influence on home appliance sales is diminishing, with the contribution of real estate to sales of washing and refrigeration products dropping to around 10% [7][8] Government Policies and Domestic Demand - The continuation of national subsidy policies is expected to support domestic demand in 2026, limiting the potential decline in demand [9] - Air conditioning is anticipated to benefit the most from these subsidy policies, while refrigerators have not shown significant benefits [9] Export Market Outlook - A turning point for exports is expected in the second quarter of 2026, driven by a recovery in overseas demand and inventory replenishment due to low stock levels [10] - The transfer of some export capacity to Southeast Asia and improvements in overseas factory profitability are contributing to this positive outlook [10] Segment Performance - The white goods segment is experiencing a slowdown in price competition, with a favorable outlook for air conditioning exports due to increased demand from emerging markets and climate changes in Europe and the U.S. [12] - The black goods segment is projected to be one of the best-performing sub-sectors by 2026, benefiting from the World Cup effect and stable panel prices [13] Recommendations for Investment - Recommended companies include Midea and Haier for white goods, as they possess dividend attributes and overseas expansion advantages [16] - For black goods, companies are heavily reliant on the U.S. market, with over 30% of their export revenue coming from there, and they are in a high dividend state [16] - In the robotic vacuum segment, companies like Ecovacs and Roborock are recommended, with a long-term growth outlook despite current pressures [17] - Attention is also drawn to leading companies in the tool chain sector, which are expected to benefit directly from the recovery in the U.S. real estate market [17]